Arizona Fall League Preview: San Diego Padres
By Alex Martinez ·
Eight San Diego prospects land in Peoria this fall, all assigned to the Javelinas. The group skews toward pitching, has a pair of hitters worth tracking at the top, and carries plenty of context: injuries interrupted several of these players' 2026 seasons, and at least one has a roster decision attached.
Alex McCoy Has Power. The Rest Is Still Catching Up.
The 24-year-old outfielder played most of 2026 at High-A Fort Wayne before a mid-August promotion to Double-A San Antonio, and the combined numbers stand out: a .278/.355/.467 line over 541 plate appearances, 19 home runs, 31 doubles and 24 stolen bases. Not bad for a player who signed as an undrafted free agent out of Hofstra in 2024 and who also played tight end in high school.
The carrying tool is raw power. McCoy's 6-foot-5, 260-pound frame generates hard contact when he stays direct to the ball, and the swing is built for pull-side damage. His 15 home runs in 98 games at Fort Wayne reflected genuine game power.
The honest concern is the hit tool. He struck out in 26.2 percent of his plate appearances on the season, and the swing can get long against spin and elevated velocity. At Double-A he walked 7.0 percent of the time and struck out 31 times in 114 plate appearances. If the strikeout rate stays north of 26 percent in Peoria, the hit tool question gets harder to answer optimistically. If McCoy tightens his decisions and shows he can drive the ball to the opposite gap, the power-speed combination becomes a usable corner outfield profile.
Ty Harvey Needs Arizona to Go Right
Harvey's 2026 season is a story of what might have been. The 20-year-old catcher, a 2025 fifth-round pick, missed time early with a hamstring injury, then broke a bone in his left hand in late May and spent two months on the injured list. Across 15 games at Single-A Lake Elsinore before the hand injury, he hit .340/.466/.447. The raw material was visible.
His full-season line, .251/.336/.389 with five home runs in 235 plate appearances, hides that context, since most of the damage came after he returned from two months off in late July. His 11 rehab games in the Arizona Complex League produced a .424/.474/.697 line, a small sample that still shows the contact quality he can reach when right.
The tools are legitimate. Harvey has a strong arm for a catcher and above-average raw power from the right side. The Padres have mixed in first base and DH to keep his bat in the lineup. A 27.7 percent strikeout rate points to present swing-and-miss risk, but at 20, with 235 plate appearances on the year, that number carries less weight than it would for an older player.
Harvey needs at-bats, reps behind the plate, and a chance to show the pre-injury production was a baseline rather than an outlier. Watch how he handles sequenced breaking balls and whether the receiving looks sharper.
Francis Peña and a Roster Clock
Peña is 25, spent all of 2026 in Double-A San Antonio's bullpen after pitching most of 2025 at Triple-A El Paso, and is not on the 40-man roster. Unless San Diego adds him this winter, he will be available to other clubs in the Rule 5 draft.
His 2026 numbers at San Antonio were strong for a reliever at that level: 42 appearances, 59 innings, a 3.05 ERA, 71 strikeouts against 36 walks, and a .230 opponent average. His primary fastball is a sinker that averaged in the mid-90s in his tracked Triple-A outings last year and touched 99.6 mph, and he pairs it with a slider in the upper 80s and an occasional cutter. A 27.1 percent strikeout rate confirms he can generate empty swings with regularity.
The walk rate is the honest problem. Peña issued 36 free passes in 262 batters faced, a 13.7 percent walk rate that keeps the floor anchored to middle relief. When the delivery gets rushed, his pitches miss their lanes, leading to extra traffic and shorter outings. If he throws more strikes in Peoria, the case for protecting him becomes easier to make. If the walk rate holds, the decision gets more complicated.
Winyer Chourio's Two-Level Split
Chourio had two very different seasons depending on which level you look at. At Single-A Lake Elsinore, across 12 appearances (11 starts) and 51.2 innings, he posted a 3.31 ERA with 74 strikeouts, a 1.22 WHIP and an 11.7 percent walk rate. He earned a late-June promotion, and at High-A Fort Wayne the results cratered: a 6.15 ERA in 41 innings, 32 walks against 48 strikeouts, seven home runs allowed, and a 16.5 percent walk rate.
The combined line (a 4.56 ERA and 122 strikeouts in 92.2 innings, a 29.9 percent strikeout rate against a 14.0 percent walk rate) shows genuine bat-missing ability alongside fragile command. Chourio is 22 and has starter reps, and Peoria will show whether his walk rate trends back toward his Single-A level.
Kannon Kemp Getting Innings After an Oblique Injury
A left oblique injury suffered right before his first scheduled start for Fort Wayne put him on the 60-day injured list in April, and he was not activated until early July. He finished with 38.2 innings between the Arizona Complex League and High-A. His numbers at Fort Wayne (a 5.73 ERA in 33 innings, 29 strikeouts, 12 walks) and in three complex-league rehab starts (a 9.53 ERA in 5.2 innings) reflect a pitcher shaking off rust. This is also his second straight interrupted year; a torn labrum and shoulder surgery cost him all of 2024.
The carrying tool is the fastball. In his Oct. 3 Fall League start, MLB's pitch tracking had his four-seamer averaging 97.4 mph and topping out at 98.6, a strong sign for a 22-year-old with his health history. He mixed in a changeup around 90 mph and a slider in the upper 80s, and his walk rate on the season was a reasonable 8.4 percent. The goal is building innings and seeing whether the velocity holds over several outings; the secondary pitches will decide whether he starts or relieves long term.
Justin DeCriscio, Finishing a Three-Level Year
The 23-year-old shortstop, a 2025 10th-round pick out of NC State, started at Lake Elsinore, moved up to Fort Wayne in May, and finished with 20 games at San Antonio. The combined line across 121 games: .270/.358/.425 with 13 home runs, 29 doubles, 22 steals, a 15.7 percent strikeout rate and an 8.7 percent walk rate.
Contact is the best part of his profile, and the hit tool grades above average. His strikeout rate rose to 21.7 percent at Double-A (18 in 83 plate appearances), something to watch against better breaking balls in Peoria.
The power projects as below average; he hit one home run with a .343 slugging percentage at Double-A. The projection is a backup middle infielder or utility man. His arm and glove both grade average or better, so the defensive floor is solid.
The Relief Arms: Igor Gil and Jordan Valenzuela
Gil, a 25-year-old lefty, split the year between Fort Wayne and San Antonio and posted a combined 4.36 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 53.2 innings. The problem is walks: 47 in 247 batters faced, a 19.0 percent walk rate, with 19.7 pitches per inning. His Double-A numbers were better on both fronts, with a 3.15 ERA in 20 innings and an 18.5 percent walk rate that was still far too high. The AFL will tell San Diego whether the gap between his stuff and his command can close.
Valenzuela, 21, is the youngest arm in the group and split 2026 between the Arizona Complex League and Lake Elsinore. His combined line shows a 4.63 ERA with a 32.6 percent strikeout rate and a 20.5 percent walk rate. The complex-league numbers were strong (34 strikeouts in 19 innings, 2.84 ERA), but Lake Elsinore was rougher (5.86 ERA, 25 walks in 27.2 innings). He misses bats, and at 21 there is time for the command to develop.
Bottom Line: Harvey and Peña Have the Most at Stake
Harvey and Peña have the most riding on this fall, for different reasons. Harvey is a 20-year-old catcher with two carrying tools and few healthy reps in 2026. A productive AFL stint rebuilds confidence in his pre-injury baseline and gives the org a clearer picture of his 2027 starting point. If the hand is fully right and the swing is back, the development clock restarts; if not, the lost time compounds.
Peña is the more immediate organizational question. He is 25, has the stuff to pitch in a big-league bullpen, and needs a 40-man spot to stay out of the Rule 5 draft. A strong fall in Peoria, with fewer walks and the same swing-and-miss, makes protecting him easier to justify. A fall that looks like more of the same keeps the decision murky, which makes him the name to watch when the Javelinas take the field.