Backroads and Ballfields: Mississippi State Lands 2028 Florida Righty Caleb Paul
By Daniel Wilson ·
In late July, Cayden Hatcher, Prep Baseball's Florida scouting director, posted TrackMan numbers on a lanky right-hander from the Future Games in Georgia. The fastball averaged 18.9 inches of horizontal movement and reached as much as 21.3. Hatcher put the release around five feet off the ground and called the tail "massive." The pitcher was Caleb Paul, listed at 6-foot-3 and 170 pounds. A fastball that moves that far sideways, out of a frame that thin, is worth chasing down.
Mississippi State has him now. Paul, a 2028 right-hander from Pembroke Pines, Fla., who pitches for Chaminade-Madonna College Prep in Hollywood, committed to the Bulldogs on Oct. 8. Jacob Bain of 247Sports reported that Paul visited Oklahoma State and Clemson this fall along with Starkville, and the facilities in Starkville stood out to him. "The pitching facility was crazy," he told Bain. He said he committed mainly after learning about coach Brian O'Connor and pitching coach Justin Parker. What Parker liked most, Paul said, was his projectability, and Parker sees him as "a seed ready to explode or bloom."
The Radar, Event by Event
Perfect Game's career chart is where the shape shows up. It has Paul at 74 mph in January 2024 and 82 at an October 2024 event. His next reading, in June 2025, was 81, a small step back. He reached 84 in early July 2025 and 87 a week later. Then the chart goes blank until June 4, 2026, when he was up to 91. PG's scouting account had him sinking it at 88 to 90 that day and touching 91 early. At an event dated June 15, PG logged a 92. That is the top reading on his chart, and it matches the summer number 247Sports reported.
The rest of the summer didn't go higher. PG recorded 90 at events dated June 27 and July 6, then 89 on July 16. Prep Baseball's TrackMan had him at 90.0 at its Miami Summer ID on June 24, sitting 88 to 89, and at 90.2 at the Future Games on July 22, ranging from 86.3 to 89.6. At the Underclass Area Code Games in Long Beach on Aug. 2, Five Tool's Pocket Radar read 87 to 91, and PG's scout wrote upper 80s, touching 91.
So the jump came somewhere between July 2025 and June 2026, a stretch with no public readings I could find. Since then he has held a band of roughly 89 to 92 rather than kept climbing, and the 92 came in mid-June. I wouldn't call that a decline. Different guns, different days and a long summer will do that. It is a plateau, though, and Paul's own goal, as he told Bain, is to keep throwing harder and "keep moving up, not just level out after the commitment."
Where the Ball Comes Out
The reports agree on the movement and disagree on the arm. PBR's write-up from Miami in June described a long, whippy arm from a high three-quarter slot. A month later, Hatcher described a low slot, a release near five feet and deceptive entry angles. PG's scouts at two June events wrote about heavy running life and sink. A five-foot release from a 6-foot-3 pitcher sounds closer to Hatcher's description, but I can't settle it from written reports, and I can't rule out that the slot changed between June and July. It needs a fresh report, and that one goes at the top of the list.
The breaking ball has a few names, too. PBR's data calls it a slider at 72.6 to 76.5 mph. PG's account called it a sweeping slider at 71 to 73 in early June and a sharp mid-70s sweeper later that month. Five Tool called it a sweeping curveball at 70 to 73, and Hatcher called it tight and slurvy. The changeup sat 81 to 83 in Miami and 79 to 82 at the Future Games, where TrackMan showed 15.5 inches of arm-side movement and Hatcher noted heavy fade. PBR also logged a cutter at 81 to 85 in Miami, the only event where I found one.
Mississippi State's 2028 Class
Bain wrote that a few weeks ago the Bulldogs had no 2028 commitments at all. Paul is the fifth, and Perfect Game's commitment list shows the other four: Axton Westmoreland, an outfielder from Hernando High School in Mississippi; Connor York, a shortstop from Knoxville Catholic in Tennessee; Jacob Reynolds, a second baseman from Charlotte Christian in North Carolina; and Pat Conner, a 6-foot-5 right-hander from Sam Houston High School in Moss Bluff, La. Steve Robertson of 247Sports reported that the staff told Westmoreland he would start out in center field.
One detail in PBR's Future Games data caught my eye. All five were at LakePoint that week, at an event PBR bills as a showcase for top uncommitted players. Conner topped out at 94.4 on TrackMan. York posted a 107.9 mph max exit velocity and ran a 6.54 60-yard dash. Reynolds ran a 6.70 and threw 92 across the infield. So far, the whole class passed through the same Georgia complex in one July week.
What Comes Next
Paul is a 2028 graduate, which puts him in line for the 2028 draft before he could throw a pitch in Starkville. Both PBR and PG list him at 16 years, 8 months old. He has no 80Grade draft rank yet; our board is still built around 2027.
What would move the evaluation? A reading above 92 this spring, from a gun we can identify, would answer the plateau question. A clear read on the slot would tell me whether run that reached 21.3 inches comes from a low release or shows up despite a higher one. The frame is the easy part to project at 170 pounds. The strength isn't there yet, and that's usually where the next few miles per hour come from.