Five Breakout Prospects: Gabriel Craig
By Riley Thompson · Mon Feb 23 2026
In baseball scouting, a "breakout prospect" represents more than just untapped potential—it's a player standing on the precipice of significant development, armed with tools that suggest they could exceed current expectations and ascend organizational rankings. These are prospects who possess the raw ingredients for success but haven't yet fully demonstrated that ability in professional competition, often due to limited opportunity, physical projection, or the need for technical refinement. The five players below are ranked based on their long-term value. Over the next few weeks we will be ranking and highlighting groups of prospects that could breakout in 2026. Drawing from 80Grade's comprehensive prospect database, we've identified five players whose combination of physical tools, recent performance trends, and developmental trajectories position them as potential breakout candidates for 2026 and beyond. This group features both advanced college bats and raw international arms, representing the spectrum of developmental paths in modern player development. 1. Gabriel Craig , RHP, Philadelphia Phillies Physical Profile & Stuff: Craig brings an imposing 6'5", 209-pound frame to the mound with a two-pitch arsenal headlined by an elite slider (60-grade) that ranks among the best breaking balls in recent college baseball. At 24 years old, fresh from dominating at Florida Atlantic University, he represents an advanced arm whose rapid professional advancement depends on translating collegiate success to professional competition. Arsenal Evaluation: The elite slider forms the foundation of Craig's profile, generating exceptional swing-and-miss rates with sharp, late break that devastates both right-handed and left-handed hitters. His above-average fastball (55-grade) sits around 95 mph with excellent carry and ride through the zone, creating an effective one-two punch. However, his changeup remains unreliable and flattens out, susceptible to hard contact when left elevated. His average command (50-grade) suggests strike-throwing ability without pinpoint precision. College Success & Professional Trajectory: Craig's college career showcased both dominance and perseverance. In 32 innings during his final season, he did not allow a single extra-base hit while posting exceptional strikeout-to-walk ratios. This performance came after overcoming thoracic outlet syndrome surgery in 2021 and navigating a complex college path spanning three institutions in five years. His late bloom, not breaking through until age 23, reflects both injury setbacks and developmental patience. Developmental Concerns: Craig's profile presents clear limitations. As a two-pitch reliever with minimal changeup development, his ceiling projects as high-leverage bullpen arm rather than starter. His command regressed from 2024 to 2025, raising questions about consistency maintaining strike-throwing under professional scrutiny. Significant injury history, particularly the thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, creates durability concerns that organizations must monitor closely. Additionally, his minimal professional experience (just 3 innings pitched through August 2025) leaves projection somewhat uncertain. Breakout Path: Craig's 2026 breakout requires proving his elite slider translates against professional hitters while maintaining fastball velocity and improving command consistency. If his slider remains plus-plus and his fastball command stabilizes, he profiles as a potential high-leverage reliever who could advance rapidly through Philadelphia's system. His age (24) and polish suggest an accelerated timeline, with major league consideration possible by late 2026 or 2027 if development proceeds smoothly. Success hinges on health, command refinement, and demonstrating his college dominance wasn't inflated by competition level. 2. Enddy Azocar , OF, Colorado Rockies Physical Profile & Tools: Azocar brings intriguing raw power to a 6'2", 168-pound frame that projects for significant physical development as he fills out. His elite 90th percentile exit velocity (105.4 mph) with max exit velocity of 110.6 mph indicates substantial raw power potential rare for an 18-year-old in Low-A. His solid athletic ability and coordination suggest defensive viability across multiple outfield positions, though he'll likely outgrow center field as he matures physically. Offensive Profile & Concerns: Azocar's offensive profile presents a fascinating contradiction: elite exit velocity metrics paired with concerning groundball rates and swing-and-miss issues. His 44% groundball rate severely limits in-game power production relative to his raw capability, the primary mechanical issue preventing him from tapping into his power potential. His excellent bat-to-ball skills show promise (84% contact rate, 18% in-zone whiff rate on fastballs), but very poor pitch recognition results in high chase rates against secondary pitches and breaking balls. Performance Variance: Azocar's small-sample Florida Complex League success (.385 batting average) contrasted sharply with his larger Low-A sample (.202), raising questions about whether his early performance reflected true skill or competition level inflation. At age 18 in Low-A, he was extremely young for the level and struggled significantly against more advanced pitching. His limited professional experience (only one season stateside) makes long-term projection uncertain, requiring patience as he develops pitch recognition and mechanical adjustments. Breakout Path: Azocar's breakout requires correcting his launch angle to unlock his elite raw power while improving pitch recognition against secondary offerings. If he can reduce his groundball rate and improve his approach against breaking balls, he has a pathway to becoming an everyday corner outfielder with 25-30 home run potential. The Rockies will focus on mechanical adjustments to create more loft in his swing path while teaching him to lay off pitches outside the zone. His physical projection and elite exit velocity create significant upside, but development is far from linear at this stage. Realistic timeline suggests 3-4 years before major league consideration, with 2026 representing a critical year for demonstrating improved contact quality and approach refinement. 3. Timothy Piasentin , 3B, Toronto Blue Jays Physical Profile & Power: Piasentin's 6'3", 200-pound frame supports plus raw power that represents his primary carrying tool. The 19-year-old third baseman brings legitimate 25-35 home run potential once he makes sufficient mechanical and approach adjustments to handle professional pitching. His left-handed bat and projectable frame create intrigue despite questions about his ultimate defensive home and hit tool development. Swing-and-Miss Concerns: Piasentin's profile carries significant swing-and-miss concerns that raised red flags for multiple scouts evaluating his ability to make consistent contact at the professional level. These contact issues create the primary hurdle preventing him from unlocking his power potential, as strikeouts limit opportunities to drive the ball. His unproven hit tool against advanced pitching may require substantial development time before producing consistent professional numbers, necessitating patience from the Blue Jays organization. Defensive & Athletic Limitations: Piasentin's defensive profile suggests limited versatility with unclear long-term position fit. His below-average speed and athleticism constrain his offensive profile by preventing position flexibility and baserunning contribution. His plodding movement and range limitations at third base suggest an eventual transition to first base or designated hitter role, placing additional pressure on his bat to produce. His limited defensive value means his offensive production must carry his profile entirely. Breakout Path: Piasentin's development hinges entirely on improving contact consistency while maintaining his power output. If he can reduce strikeouts through better pitch recognition and swing decisions, showing he can hit .240+ with 20-25 home runs in full-season ball, he profiles as a potential middle-of-the-order masher despite positional limitations. The Blue Jays will focus on refining his swing path, teaching plate discipline, and helping him recognize breaking balls earlier in counts. His timeline extends 3-4 years before major league consideration, making 2026 critical for demonstrating improved contact skills. Realistic best-case scenario suggests a corner power bat who fills either first base or designated hitter role; pessimistic outcome involves utility corner player whose contact issues prevent power production from translating consistently. Success requires proving the hit tool can develop to at least average levels. 4. Josiah Hartshorn , 1B/OF, Chicago Cubs Physical Profile & Switch-Hitting: Hartshorn's 6'2", 220-pound frame supports above-average power potential from both sides of the plate, a rare skill set that creates additional value. The 19-year-old switch-hitter brings legitimate offensive upside whose development trajectory depends heavily on maintaining health and consistency from his left side following elbow injury recovery. His physicality and developing power create projection for 25-30 home run production in an everyday role if his offensive tools mature appropriately. Injury History & Development: Hartshorn's durability concerns stem from multiple high school injuries including left elbow and back ailments that limited his development time and consistency from the left side of the plate. These injuries create questions about his ability to handle the demands of a full professional season while maintaining athleticism as he adds strength. His limited experience and consistency from the left side due to elbow injury means his switch-hitting value remains somewhat theoretical until proven healthy over extended periods. Positional Uncertainty: Hartshorn's defensive profile creates positional uncertainty between corner outfield and first base, with below-average speed limiting stolen base potential and baserunning impact. His below-average-to-average defensive metrics suggest value will concentrate in offensive production rather than glove work, placing additional pressure on his bat to produce. His ultimate position depends on physical development and organizational needs, though corner outfield appears more likely if he maintains current athleticism. Breakout Path: Hartshorn's breakout requires staying healthy while demonstrating consistent production from both sides of the plate. If he can prove his left-handed swing has fully recovered from injury and his power development continues, he profiles as a potential corner outfielder or first baseman capable of hitting 25-30 home runs with acceptable strikeout rates. The Cubs will monitor his health closely while focusing on refining his approach and developing consistency from the left side. His switch-hitting ability provides additional value and creates multiple pathways to everyday playing time. Realistic timeline suggests 3-4 years before major league consideration, with 2026 representing a critical year for staying healthy and proving his offensive tools translate to full-season ball. Upside ceiling suggests potential regular starter if all offensive tools mature; baseline outcome likely reflects platoon-capable reserve depending on health and hit tool development. 5. Robinson Ortiz , LHP, Seattle Mariners Physical Profile & Arsenal: Ortiz brings a 6'0", 180-pound frame with limited physical projection remaining but compensates with multiple above-average offerings and exceptional pitchability. The 26-year-old left-hander features an above-average fastball (55-grade) at 93 mph with exceptional life and movement characteristics that play up relative to velocity, paired with a plus changeup (60-grade) that shows advanced feel and deception. His average slider (50-grade) lacks defined shape but provides a usable third pitch for mixing sequences. Pitchability & Command Concerns: Ortiz's exceptionally smooth and repeatable delivery creates deception and easy perceived velocity despite modest actual readings. His advanced feel for pitching, sequencing, and game management suggests pitchability well beyond typical minor league arms. However, his chronically elevated walk rates (4.1 career per 9, 13%+ in recent seasons) represent a structural command issue that limits his ceiling and creates concerns about sustainability. His 40-grade command prevents him from consistently executing pitches and attacking hitters aggressively, forcing him to work around the edges rather than through the zone. Durability & Experience Concerns: Ortiz's significant durability concerns stem from 2021 forearm injury and 2024 soft tissue issues that limited his innings and created uncertainty about long-term health. His extremely limited pitcher experience at the professional level (22.2 innings from 2020-2024) raises questions about his ability to handle extended workloads. Minimal starting experience compounds concerns, with 47 of 48 appearances in 2025 coming as a reliever, suggesting the Mariners view him primarily in a bullpen role rather than traditional starter despite starter-quality secondary offerings. Breakout Path: Ortiz's development hinges entirely on reducing walk rates through mechanical refinement or pitch-sequencing optimization. If his command can improve to even average (50-grade) while maintaining his exceptional changeup and improving slider consistency, he profiles as a back-of-the-rotation reliever or low-leverage starter capable of contributing in a major league bullpen. His floor represents mid-tier organizational relief depth; his ceiling suggests competent relief arm capable of holding significant role if command improves. At age 26 with minimal innings pitched professionally, his timeline for major league impact is compressed. The Mariners will focus on command refinement and consistency in movement profile rather than expecting velocity gains. Realistic assessment suggests he will profile primarily as relief pitcher, with success dependent on proving health and demonstrating command improvement in 2026. His smooth delivery and advanced feel create optimism, but chronic walk rates remain the primary obstacle preventing breakout. Conclusion This group showcases diverse breakout pathways and risk profiles. Craig brings polish and an elite out pitch with rapid advancement potential tempered by injury history and two-pitch limitations; Azocar offers elite raw power trapped behind mechanical issues and swing-and-miss concerns requiring significant developmental patience; Piasentin's plus raw power creates intrigue despite contact issues and defensive limitations placing pressure entirely on bat development; Hartshorn's switch-hitting ability and power potential face durability questions and positional uncertainty; and Ortiz's advanced pitchability and plus changeup battle chronic command issues and durability concerns in a compressed timeline. Each represents different combinations of upside and risk, from Craig's potential rapid impact to the longer developmental timelines required for Azocar and Piasentin. Success for this group requires overcoming specific obstacles, whether mechanical adjustments, health maintenance, or command refinement, making 2026 a defining year for each prospect's trajectory.