Ranking 5 Breakout Prospects: Sean Youngerman
By Riley Thompson · Mon Feb 16 2026
In baseball scouting, a "breakout prospect" represents more than just untapped potential—it's a player standing on the precipice of significant development, armed with tools that suggest they could exceed current expectations and ascend organizational rankings. These are prospects who possess the raw ingredients for success but haven't yet fully demonstrated that ability in professional competition, often due to limited opportunity, physical projection, or the need for technical refinement. The five players below are ranked based on their long-term value. Over the next few weeks we will be ranking and highlighting groups of prospects that could breakout in 2026. Drawing from 80Grade's comprehensive prospect database, we've identified five players whose combination of physical tools, recent performance trends, and developmental trajectories position them as potential breakout candidates for 2026 and beyond. From polished college arms to toolsy prep bats, these prospects represent the spectrum of high-upside development cases worth monitoring closely. We've ranked the players below. 1. Sean Youngerman , RHP, Philadelphia Phillies Physical Profile: 6-foot-3, 230 pounds | Age: 21 (DOB: July 9, 2004) The Phillies' fourth-round selection (131st overall) in the 2025 MLB Draft represents the archetype of a buy-low starting pitcher project with significant upside. Youngerman's journey through Westmont College (where he won a 2023 NAIA championship) to Oklahoma State showcased consistent refinement, culminating in an exceptional 2025 campaign that saw him post a 2.08 ERA and 0.87 WHIP across 52 innings in mostly relief appearances. Repertoire Analysis: Youngerman's calling card is a plus fastball that sits 92-94 mph and touches 96-98 with impressive ride and run characteristics (graded 55 on the 20-80 scale). The pitch succeeds through shape and location rather than pure velocity, generating swings and misses up in the zone. His secondary offerings—a below-average slider (45 grade) and average changeup (50 grade)—require substantial development to complement the heater at professional levels. Elite Command: What separates Youngerman from typical relief-to-starter conversion projects is his strike-throwing ability, graded at 55. He walked just eight batters in 52 innings, posting a remarkable K/BB ratio near 7.4. His compact, repeatable delivery consistently hits the strike zone, providing a foundation upon which to build as a starter. Breakout Path: Philadelphia views Youngerman as a developmental starter rather than a finished product. The Phillies' plan centers on stretching him out from his college bullpen role while refining his breaking ball and changeup. His durable frame, control foundation, and starter-grade fastball provide multiple avenues for growth. If the secondaries develop even to fringe-average, Youngerman profiles as a back-end rotation piece with mid-rotation upside if everything clicks. 2. Joey Oakie , RHP, Cleveland Guardians Physical Profile: 6-foot-4, 205 pounds | Age: 19 (turns 20 May 2026) Cleveland's third-round selection (89th overall) from the 2024 draft has emerged as one of the organization's most intriguing arms. Despite his youth, Oakie demonstrates elite arm talent with projection remaining in his lean, athletic frame. Scouts consistently praise his loose, explosive arm action and ability to generate power effortlessly. Repertoire Analysis: Oakie's fastball operates in the 94-96 mph range and has touched 98 mph, featuring plus velocity with riding life through the zone. His breaking ball shows plus potential with sharp, late bite—scouts particularly note his ability to create "unique breaking ball shapes" that generate empty swings. The changeup shows promise but remains developmental, typical for a teenage pitcher. Recent Performance: After beginning 2024 with the Rookie-level Arizona Complex League Guardians (27.6% strikeout rate across 12 appearances), Oakie earned a promotion to Single-A Lynchburg in late 2025. He finished the season with dominant form, recording 22 strikeouts over 9.1 scoreless innings in his final two starts. That performance surge led scouts to suggest he "raised his stock as much as any lower-level prospect" in the system. Development Concerns: Command consistency represents Oakie's primary hurdle. He posted a 14% walk rate and 1.53 WHIP in his initial professional exposure, though scouts note "encouraging strides with throwing strikes" and emphasize his repeatable delivery. Cleveland ranks him as their No. 14-15 prospect. Breakout Path: The Guardians organization has demonstrated exceptional ability to develop pitchers, and Oakie possesses the arm talent to follow that tradition. His combination of plus velocity, breaking ball quality, and youth gives him sky-high ceiling potential. Refinement of command and consistency will determine whether he reaches that ceiling, but the raw materials suggest future impact starter potential. 3. Steven Zobac , RHP, Kansas City Royals Physical Profile: 6-foot-4, 215-225 pounds | Throws: Right | Bats: Right Few prospects have demonstrated Zobac's aggressive development curve. A former position player who converted to pitching, he's ascended from Class A (2023) through High-A to Double-A (2024) while adding velocity and refining his arsenal. The Royals' decision to add him to their 40-man roster in late 2025 signals their belief in his trajectory despite an injury-shortened season. Repertoire Analysis: Zobac features a four-pitch mix that gives him genuine starter projection. His fastball sits 93-95 mph with running action, complemented by a curveball (above-average potential), slider, and developing changeup. The curve shows tight 11-5 shape with depth, while the slider provides a different look with more horizontal action. His changeup remains the key to unlocking his starter ceiling—currently below-average but showing gradual improvement. 2024 Breakout vs. 2025 Setback: Zobac's 2024 campaign earned him the Paul Splittorff Pitcher of the Year award after posting a 3.64 ERA across 126 innings split between High-A and Double-A. He dominated at Double-A with a 3.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, and 65 strikeouts in 55.1 innings (10.6 K/9). However, a knee injury limited him to just 36.1 innings in 2025, during which he struggled to a 7.25 ERA, particularly against left-handed hitters (.403 batting average). Breakout Path: Health represents the primary question mark. When right, Zobac demonstrates back-of-rotation starter stuff with strikeout ability (123+ strikeouts in 2024) and improving control. His platoon splits reveal vulnerability against lefties, emphasizing the importance of changeup development. If he can stay healthy through 2026 and continue refining his changeup, Zobac profiles as a potential late-2026 debut candidate with realistic 2027 rotation impact. 4. Matthew Boughton , SS/INF, Chicago White Sox Physical Profile: 6-foot-1, 165-175 pounds | Age: 20 (DOB: September 10, 2005) Baseball America named Boughton a 2026 sleeper prospect despite his 11th-round draft position (316th overall, 2025), recognizing what White Sox scouts saw: five present tools in a projectable package. The Texas high schooler signed for just under $200,000, forgoing a Texas A&M commitment, and represents Chicago's strategy of drafting high-upside athletes willing to bet on themselves. Five-Tool Potential: Boughton's elite speed, honed as a high school track star, anchors his prospect status. He displays excellent range at shortstop, particularly up the middle and into the 6-hole, with plus arm strength to make all the throws. His athleticism suggests defensive versatility if a position change becomes necessary. Offensive Profile: Aggressive in the zone, Boughton features a "sweet stroke" with projectable actions, though his approach remains raw. He broke out for eight home runs in his senior season after adding strength, suggesting power potential as his frame fills out. White Sox scouting director Mike Shirley noted they viewed him as fifth-round talent who fell due to signability concerns and commitment strength. Development Timeline: Boughton's decision to turn pro immediately stems from his desire to accumulate 400 at-bats annually rather than facing limited college playing time. He aims to open 2026 at Low-A Kannapolis, where added strength and at-bat volume will determine whether his tools translate to production. Breakout Path: Boughton exemplifies the high-risk, high-reward prep bat with legitimate five-tool upside. His elite speed, defensive ability, and arm strength provide a safety net while his bat develops. If professional strength training unlocks his power projection and he makes consistent contact, Boughton could "firmly insert himself into the mix" for Chicago's rebuild timeline. The combination of athleticism, tools, and youth (nearly two years younger than typical high school draftees) creates significant breakout potential. 5. Conor Essenburg , OF/LHP, Atlanta Braves Physical Profile: 6-foot-1, 200 pounds | Bats: Right | Throws: Left | Age: 19 The Braves' fifth-round selection in 2025 represents one of the draft's most intriguing "backwards profile" bats—a right-handed hitter who throws left-handed. Atlanta paid $1.2 million to pry him away from a Kentucky commitment, signaling their conviction in his offensive potential despite questions about his overall hit tool. Two-Way Background: Essenburg arrived as a legitimate two-way prospect, throwing up to 94-95 mph as a left-handed pitcher with a three-pitch mix (all graded 50, with 45 control). He famously out-dueled top prep lefty Jack Bauer, striking out 11 while allowing one unearned run in five innings—then homered off Bauer's 99 mph fastball. Despite this pitching ability, the Braves view him exclusively as a position player. Offensive Tools: At 6-foot-2 and 200 pounds with tremendous bat speed (up to 78.1 mph) and raw power (exit velocities reaching 102.6 mph, max distance 355 feet), Essenburg immediately becomes one of Atlanta's most exciting offensive prospects. His aggressive, uphill swing path generates natural loft, projecting to 20-homer upside at maturity. He demonstrates good feel for contact, though his limited high school track record leaves questions about hit tool refinement. Defensive Profile: A below-average runner (7.29-second 60-yard dash), Essenburg profiles best in right field or possibly first base. His plus arm strength (94 mph from the outfield) fits the right field profile, though defensive value will likely come from his bat rather than glove. Breakout Path: Baseball America assigned Essenburg a 55 grade with extreme risk (adjusted to 35), reflecting both his upside and uncertainty. His 2026 professional debut will be crucial for validating whether his power and bat speed translate against advanced pitching. If his contact ability proves legitimate, Essenburg's power potential could make him an impact middle-of-the-order threat in Atlanta's system. The Braves' track record of offensive development—particularly with power bats—bodes well for his trajectory. Conclusion These five prospects offer distinct breakout paths in 2026: polished arms needing health and refinement, elite talent requiring command consistency, and toolsy position players chasing production. Each possesses the raw ingredients for significant development leaps. The question now is which will translate tools into impact performance as spring training approaches.