Who Should the San Diego Padres Target in the 2026 MLB Draft?
By Gordon Kairis ·
As the 2026 MLB Draft approaches, the San Diego Padres are at a crossroads. Do they continue their recent trend of targeting high school talent to restock a farm system that has been thinned by trades, or do they pivot toward a more polished, MLB-ready college prospect? The direction they choose could shape the organization’s future for years to come.
Who Should the San Diego Padres Target in the 2026 MLB Draft?
The San Diego Padres are not picking at the very top of the 2026 MLB Draft, but No. 21 is still a fascinating spot. The Padres are in the middle of a win-now window, but they are also a franchise that has repeatedly shown a willingness to draft loud tools, develop upside, and use prospect capital aggressively when the major league roster needs help.
That is what makes this pick so interesting. San Diego could take a college player with a shorter path to the big leagues. It could also stay true to its recent identity and bet on a high-ceiling prep player with louder long-term upside.
After trading Leo De Vries as part of the Mason Miller deal, the Padres have a real need to add another impact talent to the farm system. De Vries was one of the top prospects in baseball at the time of the trade, which makes this draft pick feel less like a luxury and more like an important opportunity to restock.
The Draft Strategy: Best Player Available, But With a Padres Twist
The easy answer is “best player available.” The better answer is “best player available who fits how the Padres actually operate.”
A college player makes sense. College hitters and pitchers usually come with more track record, more data, and a clearer developmental timeline. For a team trying to win right now, that matters. If a polished college bat or college starter falls to No. 21, the Padres should be aggressive.
But forcing a college pick just because the major league club is trying to win would be a mistake. San Diego’s recent draft identity has leaned toward high-upside talent, especially projectable arms. Prep left-handers such as Gio Rojas and Brody Bumila fit the organization’s recent trend of chasing size, velocity, handedness, and projection.
The Padres should not be asking, “Who gets here fastest?” They should be asking, “Who has the best chance to become an impact player or premium trade asset?”
Dream Falls at No. 21
Justin Lebron, SS, Alabama
80Grade Rank: 18
My Rank: 10
Lebron would be a major value if he somehow got to San Diego. He brings the type of athletic, up-the-middle profile teams chase early in the draft. The appeal starts with bat speed and defensive value. He has shown real impact at the plate, and he has the actions, lateral mobility, and arm strength to create value at shortstop.
The question is the hit tool. Lebron can punish fastballs, especially up in the zone, but his chase rates and performance against secondary stuff create some risk. That is why he is such an interesting Padres fit. The upside is real, the defensive floor is appealing, and the development challenge is clear.
Derek Curiel, OF, LSU
80Grade Rank: 12
My Rank: 23
Curiel is a different kind of fit. He is more polish than explosion, more hit tool than monster raw power. His left-handed swing is calm, controlled, and built around contact. He rarely whiffs, draws walks, and uses the gaps well. For a Padres system that could use reliable offensive performers, Curiel would bring a safer bat than many of the bigger-tool options around this range.
The ceiling question is power and defensive home. Curiel may not project as a middle-of-the-order slugger, and his long-term defensive fit could be in left field. But if San Diego wants a hitter with approach, feel, and a strong chance to keep moving through the system, he should be in the conversation.
Cameron Flukey, RHP, Coastal Carolina
80Grade Rank: 9
My Rank: 28
Flukey is one of the more intriguing college arms in this range. He has starter size, big velocity, and a breaking ball that can miss bats. His slider and changeup give him the foundation of a starter’s mix, though both still need refinement.
The medical piece matters. Flukey missed time with an injury, and that limits how cleanly teams can evaluate his full-season track record. Still, if the Padres believe the health is fine and the starter traits are real, he could be a strong value play. The Tyler Glasnow-style comparison makes sense from a body and stuff perspective, but the real question is whether Flukey can turn premium traits into consistent starter execution.
Realistic Targets Around Pick No. 21
Liam Peterson, RHP, Florida
80Grade Rank: 20
My Rank: 20
Peterson is a classic first-round college arm with size, velocity, and power stuff. He works north-south with a fastball that plays well at the top of the zone, and his slider gives him a real bat-missing secondary. His changeup has enough action to project as a useful third pitch.
The delivery has not always been the cleanest, but reports suggest he has made strides tightening things up. That matters. If Peterson looks like a starter to San Diego’s evaluators, he is one of the cleanest college fits on this board.
Ace Reese, 3B, Mississippi State
80Grade Rank: 13
My Rank: 17
Reese gives the Padres something every system needs: left-handed impact. His bat speed, lift, and ability to do damage to both sides of the field make him one of the more appealing college bats who could realistically be in the Padres’ range.
The risk is whether the chase and swing decisions hold up against better pitching. Still, the combination of power, fastball damage, and SEC production gives Reese a strong case. If San Diego wants a college bat with real offensive upside, he belongs near the top of the list.
Sawyer Strosnider, OF, TCU
80Grade Rank: 11
My Rank: 16
Strosnider is my favorite Padres fit if he gets to No. 21. He has a loud left-handed swing, big bat speed, and the athleticism to impact the game in multiple ways. He can drive the ball with authority to the pull side and the opposite field, giving him more upside than a typical “safe” college bat.
The approach needs work. He can be aggressive, and the chase will have to come down. But the upside is exactly what the Padres should be chasing in this range. Strosnider gives them a college player with loud traits, not just a safer college player. That is the balance San Diego should want.
High School Upside to Watch
Gio Rojas, LHP, Marjory Stoneman Douglas HS
80Grade Rank: 15
My Rank: 7
Rojas is one of the most Padres-like players on the board. He is a projectable left-hander with athleticism, deception, arm speed, and big velocity. His lower slot creates angle that can be especially uncomfortable for left-handed hitters.
The slider and changeup both show promise, giving him more than just velocity. The command is still developing, which is normal for a high school arm, but the ingredients are loud. If San Diego wants the highest-upside pitcher likely to be around at No. 21, Rojas may be the name.
Brody Bumila, LHP, Bishop Feehan HS
80Grade Rank: 21
My Rank: 30
Bumila is a massive projection play. His size immediately stands out, and his fastball-changeup combination gives him one of the more unique profiles in the class. For a high school lefty with that kind of frame, the upside is obvious.
The risk is just as clear. He has dealt with injury, and his breaking ball still trails the fastball-changeup combination. But this is the type of player the Padres have not been afraid to take. If they believe the medicals are clean, Bumila could be very much in play.
Jared Grindlinger, LHP/OF, Huntington Beach HS
80Grade Rank: 16
My Rank: 27
Grindlinger may be one of the most fascinating players in the class because he has real two-way ability. On the mound, he is a polished strike-thrower with quality stuff and feel for multiple pitches. At the plate, he shows zone awareness, contact skills, and the potential to grow into more power as he fills out.
He is also young for the class, which makes the evaluation more complicated but also more exciting. A team taking Grindlinger is not just betting on present tools. It is betting on age, athleticism, and developmental runway.
Trevor Condon, OF, Etowah HS
80Grade Rank: 19
My Rank: 14
Condon is the spark plug of this group. He is a high-energy center field prospect with top-tier speed, contact ability, and enough bat speed to project more impact as he matures. His swing is unconventional and will need refinement, but the athleticism, defense, and instincts give him a clear path to value.
The question is power. If Condon grows into enough extra-base impact, he could become a dynamic everyday center fielder. If the power stalls, he may be more of a speed-and-defense profile. Still, his style of play would bring a different look to the Padres’ system.
Final Thoughts: The Best Padres Fit
If I were running the Padres’ draft room, my first choice from this group would be Sawyer Strosnider. He gives San Diego a college bat, but not a low-ceiling college bat. The power, athleticism, left-handed swing, and defensive value make him the best blend of upside and relative safety.
If Strosnider is gone, the decision becomes philosophical. Liam Peterson is the cleaner college pitching option. Ace Reese is the best college power bat. Gio Rojas may have the highest pitching ceiling. Brody Bumila is the biggest Padres-style upside swing.
That is why this pick should not be framed as simply college versus high school. The better question is this:
Do the Padres want the player most likely to help soon, or the player most likely to become the kind of impact talent they can build around or trade for major league help?
For San Diego, the answer has usually leaned toward ceiling. At No. 21, that may still be the right bet.
If you were the Padres’ Director of Scouting, which direction would you go: college polish, high school upside, or simply the loudest tool package left on the board?