The 2026 MLB Draft Lottery Explained
By Taylor Anderson ·
The MLB Draft Lottery is a relatively new twist on how baseball assigns its top amateur picks, introduced after the 2022 season to discourage “tanking” — the practice of losing on purpose to secure a higher draft position. Starting with the 2023 Draft, the lottery now determines picks 1 through 6, replacing the old system where the team with the worst record automatically picked first. The lottery takes place in a back room at the Winter Meetings in Orlando on Tuesday, December 9th. You can watch the reveal on the MLB Network at 5:30 PM EST.
Origin of the Lottery
The lottery was created as part of MLB’s new collective bargaining agreement in 2022, which aimed to promote competitive balance and disincentivize teams from intentionally fielding weak rosters. Before 2023, the Draft order was strictly based on reverse win-loss records, giving the worst team the No. 1 overall pick. Now, only non-postseason teams are eligible for the lottery, and the top six selections are decided by a weighted random draw.
How the Lottery Works
MLB uses a ping-pong ball-style drawing similar to other professional sports lotteries. A machine randomly selects four numbered balls, and the resulting combination corresponds to one of the 18 non-playoff teams. Each team is assigned a certain number of four-number combinations based on their record from the previous season:
The worst records get the most combinations (and thus the best odds).
Better records among non-playoff teams receive fewer combinations.
One combination (the 1,001st) is unassigned and serves as a “no team” result.
The drawing is repeated up to seven times to determine picks 1 through 6, with some teams potentially being drawn more than once (though only one pick per team is awarded in the top six).
Odds and Weighting
The odds are heavily weighted toward the worst-performing teams, but not as dramatically as in leagues like the NBA. MLB’s system is designed to “smooth out” the odds so that even teams with mid-tier records have a realistic chance at a top-six pick. This reduces the incentive to lose as many games as possible.
For example:
The team with the worst record typically has around a 25–30% chance at the No. 1 overall pick. This year, the White Sox have the highest chance with a 27.7% chance at #1 and a 96.1% chance at a top-6 pick.
Teams near the middle of the non-playoff pack might have 5–10% odds.
The best non-playoff teams may have less than 1% chance at No. 1.
Despite these odds, the lottery has already produced chaos: in each of its first three years, the team with the best odds to pick first did not end up with the No. 1 pick, and at least one team jumped at least seven spots into the top six.
Why Some Teams Are Ineligible
To prevent wealthier or more aggressive small-market teams from dominating the top of the Draft repeatedly, MLB has added restrictions:
Revenue-Sharing Recipients (small-market teams):
Cannot receive a lottery pick (selections 1–6) in three consecutive years.
If they would otherwise be drawn into the top six in a third straight year, they are skipped, and their pick drops to no higher than 10th overall.
Revenue-Sharing Payers (larger-market teams):
Cannot win a lottery pick in consecutive years.
If they win a top-six pick, they are ineligible to win again the following year, even if they have a poor record.
These rules mean that even a historically bad team (like the Colorado Rockies in 2025) can be blocked from the lottery if they’ve already had multiple recent top picks, pushing them down to 10th or lower.
How the Full Draft Order Is Set
After the lottery determines picks 1–6, the rest of the first round is filled in as follows:
Picks 7–18: The remaining non-playoff teams, ordered by winning percentage (worst to best). Lottery ineligible teams (10th: Rockies, 11th: Nationals, and 12th: Angels) are inserted by record at pick 10.
Picks 19–30: Playoff teams, ordered by postseason elimination round, with revenue-sharing recipients picking first within each group:
Wild Card losers: picks 19–22
Division Series losers: picks 23–26
League Championship Series losers: picks 27–28
World Series loser: pick 29
World Series winner: pick 30
Ties are broken using the previous year’s standings, with the worse record getting the earlier pick.
Additionally:
Teams that spent over $40 million above the Competitive Balance Tax (CBT) threshold and made the postseason have their first pick moved down 10 spots. The Dodgers (41st), Blue Jays (40th), Phillies (37th), and Yankees (36th) each had their picks dropped 10 spots and are locked in.
Teams (New York Mets) that did not make the postseason but are $40M over the CBT line are eligible for the lottery. If they receive a lottery pick, they keep that pick and their next pick is moved down 10. If they fail to secure a lottery pick, their 1st round pick is moved down 10.
Full Lottery Percentage for 1st Overall Pick (2025 Win Pct)
White Sox (.370) -- 27.73%
Twins (.432) -- 22.18%
Pirates (.438) -- 16.81%
Orioles (.463) -- 9.24%
A’s (.469) -- 6.55%
Braves (.469) -- 4.54%
Rays (.475) -- 3.03%
Cardinals (.481) -- 2.35%
Marlins (.488) -- 1.85%
D-backs (.494) -- 1.51%
Rangers (.500) -- 1.34%
Giants (.500) -- 1.01%
Royals (.506) -- 0.84%
Mets (.512) -- 0.67%
Astros (.537) -- 0.34%
Rockies (.265) -- ineligible
Nationals (.407) -- ineligible
Angels (.444) -- ineligible
Why It Matters
The MLB Draft Lottery adds unpredictability and excitement to the Draft, but it also creates strategic ripple effects. Teams must balance short-term competitiveness with long-term planning, knowing that even a terrible season doesn’t guarantee a top pick. At the same time, the restrictions on repeat lottery winners aim to level the playing field and keep more teams engaged throughout the season.
As the 2026 Draft approaches, all eyes will be on the ping-pong balls — because in today’s MLB, the path to a franchise-changing prospect starts not just with losses, but with luck.