The ABCs of the CBA: Why a Major-League Lockout Wouldn’t Stop Every Prospect
By Alex Larson ·
The ABCs of the CBA breaks down baseball’s labor rules in plain English. This week: why a major-league lockout would not automatically shut down every prospect’s season.
Could MLB Fill Its Stadiums with Triple-A Baseball During a 2027 Lockout?
Two CBAs, Two Expiration Dates
Major League Baseball has two separate labor agreements with players, and they expire a year apart. The Major League CBA, finalized in March 2022 after a 99-day lockout, expires December 1, 2026. Minor Leaguers unionized under the MLBPA in late 2022 and won their first CBA in 2023, and that agreement runs through the 2027 season.
That could look like a quirk of timing, but the Minor League deal includes an explicit no-strike, no-lockout provision. The language is very direct. It is in Article XXII — “No Strike / No Lockout”:
“During the term of this Agreement, the Association, on behalf of Minor League Players, will not engage in, authorize or threaten a strike. The Clubs will not lock out Minor League Players during the term of the Agreement.”
For as long as it's in force, the MLBPA can't authorize Minor Leaguers to strike, and MLB can't lock them out. The result is something like a built-in operating system for a 2027 Major League lockout. There's no public evidence that MLB chose these dates on purpose. But if the league were planning ahead, it would be hard to design a more useful structure.
The 40-Man Roster Is the Dividing Line
Players in the Major League bargaining unit can be locked out when the Major League CBA expires. Non-40-man Minor Leaguers stay covered by their own agreement, so MLB could enter 2027 with its big leaguers locked out while thousands of Minor Leaguers keep reporting to work.
We know this works because MLB did it in 2021–22. The league said at the time that non-40-man players would continue with minicamps, Minor League Spring Training and extended spring training, and they did. The lockout froze the Majors, but Minor League operations kept going.
Spring Training Without the Stars
Picture February 2027. Major League camps are closed to locked-out players and talks are dragging, but the complexes in Arizona and Florida don't have to sit empty. Every organization can run camp for its eligible players, and MLB could do far more with that than it did in 2022. Instead of leaving Minor League camp on the back fields, it could stage spring games with each club's best available prospects in the regular spring stadiums. Tickets could be cheap, games could be streamed or televised, and prospect coverage could anchor MLB Network. MLB would still be missing its stars, but it wouldn't be missing baseball.
Triple-A in Major League Ballparks
The same logic carries into April. If the lockout continues, affiliated Minor League schedules can still begin, which opens the door to moving selected Triple-A games into Major League stadiums. The Yankees' affiliate could play at Yankee Stadium, the Cubs' at Wrigley, and the Dodgers' at Dodger Stadium.
These wouldn't be replacement Major League games. They'd stay genuine Triple-A games. Teams keep their identities, the results count in Triple-A standings, stats remain Minor League stats, and the Minor League CBA still governs the players. Only the venue and presentation change.
There's one catch. Players on 40-man rosters are MLBPA members, and in 2021–22 they were barred from Minor League camps and games. Triple-A rosters normally include some of them, so these clubs would be thinner than usual.
Somebody Has to Pay the Affiliates
MLB doesn't control the business of every Triple-A team. Many affiliates are independently owned and depend on home dates for tickets, sponsorships, concessions and merchandise, and their stadium leases may require games in their home market. MLB couldn't strip dozens of home dates without compensating them.
That's a commercial problem, not a labor problem, and it's a solvable one. Parent clubs could guarantee an affiliate's expected revenue, or pay a premium, to relocate a game, and stadium owners and local partners could be compensated where required. The economics wouldn't need Major League crowds to work. Even a fraction of a normal Major League gate, at low ticket prices, would bring in gate revenue, concessions, parking, sponsorship and TV inventory from a building that would otherwise produce almost nothing.
Replacement Programming, Not Replacement Players
This is where the strategy departs from 1995. During the 1994–95 dispute, owners prepared to use replacement players in what were supposed to be Major League games, which set up a direct confrontation with the Major League bargaining unit. In 2027, MLB could skip replacement players and offer replacement programming instead. A Triple-A game at Yankee Stadium is still a Triple-A game, and MLB could promote it heavily without pretending the players are Yankees. That would preserve some of baseball's commercial value while keeping a cleaner line between the locked-out Major League workforce and the Minor Leaguers covered by their own contract.
A Lab With a National Audience
Minor League Baseball has become MLB's testing ground. The pitch timer and the automated ball-strike challenge system were both piloted there before reaching the Majors. In 2026 the league is testing several more ideas, including moving second base in Triple-A's International League, limiting pickoff attempts in Double-A, and adding checked-swing challenges. Nationally visible Triple-A games in Major League parks would be a perfect environment for more of that. The league could try different replay or ABS formats, more aggressive baserunning rules, new extra-inning formats, more player mics and in-game interviews, and alternative series formats.
It could also include scheduling experiments.
The NBA has had some success with their in-season tournaments.
The Red Sox and Cubs were able to draw well in a single-game match-up in Tampa.
Another option would be to test out bigger baseball in potential expansion cities or international sites.
Exhibitions against Japanese or Korean teams might appeal to a global audience.
The Pressure Would Look Different
Triple-A baseball can't replace the big leagues. Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge are the product fans want. But owners don't need a full replacement for it to matter at the bargaining table, only something that lowers the cost of waiting. Without baseball, stadiums sit dark, networks lose programming, sponsors lose exposure and fans drift away. With a heavily promoted Triple-A alternative, there's still baseball on TV, 20,000 people at a ballpark on a Saturday afternoon, and concessions, sponsorships and prospect storylines. The pressure on owners would still be enormous, but it would be less binary.
Was This the Plan?
No document says MLB negotiated the Minor League CBA with a 2027 lockout in mind. But look at what the league now has:
A Major League CBA that expires after 2026.
A Minor League CBA in force through 2027, with no strikes and no lockouts.
A 2022 precedent showing Minor League camps can run during a Major League lockout.
A long habit of using the Minors to test rules and formats.
Maybe the dates just fell that way. But if MLB wanted to enter its next negotiation with a functioning baseball product available all season, it would be hard to build a better setup. If a 2027 dispute drags on, don't be surprised if Major League stadiums aren't empty. The names on the uniforms may just belong to their Triple-A affiliates.