The Daily Briefing — Joshua Baez's Breakout Season Shows What Cardinals Development Can Do
By Morgan Davis · Fri Feb 27 2026
The Strikeout Rate That Wouldn't Die Finally Did Joshua Baez has spent the better part of four years fighting one thing: himself. A 2021 second-round pick with a built-in frame and plus athleticism, the 22-year-old outfielder arrived in the Cardinals organization with every tool you'd want. Size, strength, arm talent, blazing-quick bat. The problem was his swing-and-miss. Year after year at the lower levels, Baez was striking out at rates that made you wonder if the toolshed was all he had. In 2023 and 2024, he hovered right around 35% strikeouts. That's the kind of number that stops prospect conversations cold. Then something shifted in 2025. Baez called it a "rollercoaster," but what happened was closer to a breakthrough. Over 117 games split between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield, he slashed .287/.384/.500 with 20 home runs and 54 stolen bases while posting a .884 OPS. The headline stat, though, wasn't the power or the speed. It was that strikeout rate: 20.6%. Not just improved. Transformed. When you cut a strikeout rate in half without losing anything—his walk rate held steady at 12.6%, his power stayed intact—that's the kind of development story that gets prospects noticed by front offices. His 209 total bases more than doubled his 103 strikeouts, a mathematical statement about how much he'd reorganized his offensive profile. What's fascinating is that Baez didn't overhaul his mechanics. The Cardinals invested heavily in their player-development infrastructure over the past couple of years, adding staff and upgrading facilities. But when you asked Baez what changed, he credited "mental cues, approach—not trying to do too much physical-wise." The body was already there. He just finally gave it permission to work. That earned him a 40-man roster spot and a place on the Top 100 Prospects list, where he now ranks No. 47. Quick Hits JJ Wetherholt , the Cardinals' present : While Baez is the feel-good breakout story, the organization's top prospect remains locked in as the heir to second base. Wethelholt is in Jupiter training alongside Hall of Famer Ozzie Smith, who has been mentoring the 23-year-old infielder. The No. 7 overall pick from 2024 is essentially a lock for the Opening Day roster and could be the National League Rookie of the Year favorite if he plays well enough out of the gate. His .306/.421/.510 line with 17 homers and 23 steals last year wasn't just prospect porn—it was a statement. Liam Doyle 's fast-track timeline: The Cardinals' top pitching prospect is being handled with kid gloves because they believe he's capable of being an ace. The No. 5 overall pick from last June made two brief appearances after being drafted, including one all the way up at Double-A, and promptly looked sharp. He struck out 6 of the 15 batters he faced. At just 21 years old and already throwing in the mid-90s with a plus slider, Doyle will likely begin the season in Double-A but could be fast-tracked if he continues dominating. Don't be surprised if you hear his name called for a September callup by mid-summer. Jurrangelo Cijntje 's pitch identity crystallizes: The Cardinals' newly acquired switch-pitcher from Seattle faced an important decision spring: commit fully to his right-handed arsenal or maintain the dual-threat approach that made him intriguing as a prospect. Manager Oliver Marmol confirmed the organization will lean into Cijntje's right-handed stuff in competitive settings while letting him continue developing his left-handed arsenal in bullpen work. It's a pragmatic move that doesn't kill the dream but acknowledges where his near-term upside lives. Leonardo Bernal 's Gold Glove matters more than the bat: The switch-hitting catcher won a Minor League Gold Glove last year and continues impressing defensively, though his offensive production remains modest. At 21, Bernal has the timeline and the defensive pedigree to push through the Cardinals' catcher logjam eventually, but he'll start the season in Triple-A building on that elite receiving. Rainiel Rodriguez is already thinking big: The 19-year-old catching phenom burst onto the scene with a 162 wRC+ across the DSL and Low-A levels as an 18-year-old last year, crushing 20 homers in just 84 games. He's the kind of young, toolsy prospect who could legitimately be a top-20 name within a year if the development trajectory holds. The Cardinals will be patient with him at High-A, but he's already turning heads in ways that suggest he could be a legitimate superstar candidate down the road. Stat of the Day Joshua Baez's 54 stolen bases in 117 games marks him as one of the few power-speed prospects in professional baseball who can genuinely do both at a high level. Consider this: in 2025, only a handful of minor leaguers stole 50+ bases while also slugging .500 or better. Baez joined that exclusive club, which tells you everything about how much his offensive profile changed. He's not a speed guy with occasional power. He's not a slugger who runs a little. He's a legitimate two-tool threat, which makes his path to St. Louis considerably shorter than it was a year ago. On the Radar Chase Davis , the prospect who might not be one anymore: Davis was the 21st overall pick in 2023 and has quietly become one of the more polarizing figures in the Cardinals system. The center fielder (though destined for a corner) struck out at a concerning rate in 2025—hitting just .242 with a .711 OPS in 414 at-bats across Springfield. That kind of performance would normally warrant more alarm, but Davis was a non-roster invitee to spring training, which means the organization still believes in the power upside. At 24 years old, he's running out of runway to prove the first-round pedigree matches the production. This spring will be critical in determining whether Davis makes a believer-converting play or becomes a cautionary tale about high draft picks who never quite put it together. Looking Ahead Quinn Mathews vs. Tink Hence battle for rotation depth will be worth monitoring as Spring Training continues. Mathews showed 96.7 mph velocity in his first spring appearance—a significant uptick from his 2025 velocity average—while Hence is fighting back from an injury-plagued campaign that saw him plummet in prospect rankings. One of these guys could find themselves as September call-up material if the rotation gets thin. Also watch for Baez getting extended reps in center field during exhibition games; the organization is testing whether he could contribute there immediately rather than waiting for a Triple-A assignment.