Wrigleyville Prospect Weekly: Ayers Heats Up at Triple-A, Hartshorn Gets His Double-A Ticket
By Reed Kubiak ·
Wrigleyville Prospect Weekly covers the last 7 days of action for the Cubs farm system.
Ayers Finds Another Gear at Iowa
Owen Ayers (AAA, C, Rank: 9) went 6-for-21 with two doubles, two RBI, and three walks against four strikeouts this week, a productive stretch that continues to add texture to an interesting backstop season in the system. The 25-year-old switch-hitting catcher has now slashed .304/.417/.591 with 16 home runs, 42 walks, and 48 RBI across 278 plate appearances at Double-A this year, before his promotion to Triple-A Iowa, where he is now batting .259/.376/.373 with three home runs and a 15.3 percent walk rate in 189 plate appearances. The combined season line across all three levels sits at .295/.408/.538 with 25 home runs and 79 walks in 519 plate appearances, which is a hard number to wave away from a catcher. Over his last 30 days at Iowa, he is slashing .256/.366/.359 with five doubles and a 14.0 percent walk rate across 21 games, a modest run rate-wise but one that keeps his approach intact as he settles into the toughest environment he has faced.
The scouting picture on Ayers heading into this season was measured: a 50 hit tool, 55 power grade, up-down projection behind the plate. The bat has consistently played above that ceiling at every stop. The real concern was always whether swing length and stiffness from the left side would get exposed by pitchers working multiple quadrants with breaking stuff, and Triple-A is where that answer gets stress-tested. The 72.8 percent contact rate on the season is a legitimate flag, and it has ticked to 76.3 percent over the last 30 days, which at least suggests he is not getting steadily worse as the calendar turns. His 15.2 percent walk rate for the season stands out because it holds at Triple-A and indicates his plate discipline is not a level-specific quirk. He is not a premium defender behind the dish, and there is no standout arm or framing skill that would carry him if the bat regresses, but the combination of power and on-base rate at a premium position gives him a real path. I would take the over on the up-down projection at this point, though the swing concerns are worth watching carefully in September.
Hartshorn's Promotion Is Well-Earned, Even If the First Week Was Rough
Josiah Hartshorn (AA, 1B, Rank: 1) was assigned to Knoxville on September 11, earning his first Double-A plate appearances after one of the more productive seasons a 19-year-old first baseman has put together in recent Cubs minor-league history. The promotion itself is the story; the immediate numbers at Knoxville are not. He went 1-for-21 in his first three Double-A games, drawing four walks against three strikeouts across 23 plate appearances. At High-A South Bend before the move, he posted a .297/.405/.560 line with 18 home runs, 17 doubles, 85 RBI, and a 14.6 percent walk rate across 370 plate appearances. His final 30 days at South Bend were even sharper: .305/.443/.585 with six home runs, 22 walks, and a 20.8 percent walk rate across 106 plate appearances, which is what a September promotion is supposed to look like on a resume.
The combined season line across all three levels sits at .284/.407/.518 with 23 home runs, 91 walks, and 112 RBI in 562 plate appearances. His 78.7 percent contact rate and 41.1 percent swing rate are the two numbers that best describe how he operates: patient, selective, and productive when he gets his pitch. The scouting projection is a second-division first baseman whose value comes from on-base ability and enough pull-side pop to be dangerous. The honest challenge with that profile is that the defensive home is narrow, placing real pressure on the bat, and the same patience that fuels his OBP can slide toward passivity against pitchers who live in the zone early. Double-A will be the first sustained test of that. The cold first week at Knoxville is almost certainly noise from a 19-year-old adjusting to a new level on the fly, and the scouting foundation is intact. The 55 power grade may need a second look before the offseason is over.
Quick Hits
- Brody McCullough (AA, RHP, Rank: 37) · threw five innings at Knoxville, allowing three hits and no earned runs while striking out seven and walking three across 21 batters faced. He generated 13 swinging misses on 82 pitches, a strong whiff rate that tracks with the 30 percent whiff rate he has carried over his last four Double-A outings. The season ERA at Knoxville sits at 2.98 across 42.1 innings, and the combined line across all levels is a 3.27 ERA with a 27.7 percent strikeout rate in 55 innings. A 93-to-95 fastball and a curveball that flashes average are his carrying pitches when the delivery is synced up, and the stuff was clearly there this week. Durability remains the central question on this profile after multiple arm-related interruptions, but when he is healthy and locating, there is a back-end starter in there.
- Kane Kepley (AA, OF, Rank: 7) · managed 4-for-28 with one RBI, two walks, and a hit-by-pitch over the week, a lean stretch for a player who has otherwise been among the more compelling profile bets in the system. Over his last 30 days at Double-A, he is slashing .167/.346/.238 with a 16.8 percent walk rate and just one extra-base hit across 107 plate appearances. The season walk rate at Double-A sits at 16.7 percent, and the contact rate of 85 percent has held, so the approach is not broken. The issue is production: the 35 power grade was never going to carry him, but the current stretch shows what the profile looks like when the hit tool goes cold and there is no pop to compensate. An everyday center fielder ceiling is real when the hit tool is cooking, and the 70 stolen bases this year suggest the athleticism is genuine. A rough few weeks is not a ceiling re-evaluation, just a reminder of how narrow the margin is when the contact is not there.
- Angel Cepeda (AA, SS, Rank: 26) · was also promoted to Knoxville on September 11, joining Hartshorn for a Double-A debut week. In 13 plate appearances at the new level, he is slashing .273/.308/.273 with no extra-base hits. His South Bend season line of .267/.389/.442 with 11 home runs and a 12-steal campaign at 20 years old made a strong case for the jump, and the full-season picture will far outlast whatever he does in a handful of September at-bats at Double-A.
- Brooks Caple (AA, RHP, Rank: 12) · allowed three earned runs on four hits over five innings this week, walking two and striking out four. Over his last four Double-A starts, the ERA is 3.92 across 20.2 innings, with the home run rate (three in that span) doing most of the damage. The season ERA at Knoxville is 3.24 across 86 innings, backed by a 7.4 percent walk rate that reflects the command gains he has made relative to 2025. A 45 command grade and a fringe changeup remain the ceiling limiters, but he has been a reliable innings-eating presence at Double-A all year.
- James Triantos (AAA, 2B, Rank: 10) · went 4-for-21 with three doubles and two RBI at Iowa this week. The three doubles in a modest week are at least consistent with who he is: a 55 hit tool, contact-first second baseman with a 40 power grade who creates value with bat-to-ball skills and speed rather than big swings. The season AAA line of .300/.355/.439 with a 7.1 percent walk rate and 27 stolen bases tells the same story. He got a seven-game MLB look this summer and was optioned back in August, and the Triple-A work since has been steady if unspectacular. The aggressive approach (51.1 percent swing rate) and modest walk totals are the things that will continue to be tested if he gets another big-league opportunity.
- Josiah Hartshorn (AA, 1B, Rank: 1) · 's 1-for-21 first week at Double-A lands him in the underperformer column on paper, but there is not much to read into three games of adjustment at 19 years old against a new level. He drew four walks in those 23 plate appearances, which means the approach traveled even if the hits did not. The .305/.443/.585 slash over his last 30 days at High-A is the more relevant baseline heading into what remains of September in Knoxville.