Arizona Fall League Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates
By Simon Lane ·
The Pirates are sending eight players to the Glendale Desert Dogs this fall, and the group reflects where the organization stands developmentally: a headliner getting back at-bats he lost during the regular season, a power hitter whose approach needs refining before he moves up, a catcher coming off his first full pro season, and a cluster of arms that need innings, strikes, or both.
Sanford Squeezes Every At-Bat He Can Get
Wyatt Sanford's 2026 season at High-A Greensboro was genuinely productive before a hand injury cost him nearly two months. He hit .292/.423/.551 in 72 games with the Grasshoppers, with 17 home runs and 33 stolen bases, and walked in 14.1 percent of his plate appearances. For a 20-year-old shortstop in his first High-A season, that is an impressive set of numbers. The AFL stint is the Pirates getting some of that lost time back.
The scouting read on Sanford highlights three things: a mature approach for his age, speed that translates to stolen bases, and defensive actions clean enough to project him staying at short. The power is the open question. His raw power grades below average, and while the 2026 home run total is encouraging, most of his offense still runs through on-base skill and baserunning rather than over-the-fence damage. He is vulnerable to advanced spin and two-strike sequencing, which is exactly what Fall League pitching will throw at him.
Watch the strikeout rate in the desert. At Greensboro he fanned in 29.3 percent of his plate appearances, which is high for a hitter who leans on contact and patience. If he handles quality breaking balls with any consistency in Arizona and keeps the walk rate up, that supports an on-base profile that can carry him. If the swing-and-miss grows against upper-level arms, the hit tool stays a question heading into 2027. He is the most interesting name in this group and the one Pittsburgh will be watching most closely.
Severino's 31 Home Runs Buy Him a Chance to Answer the Big Question
Jhonny Severino hit 31 home runs at High-A Greensboro this season. That is a legitimate power number at any level, and for a 21-year-old it keeps the carrying tool credible. The catch is that his approach has not cleaned up alongside the power: a 7.0 percent walk rate and a 22.2 percent strikeout rate in 474 plate appearances describe an aggressive hitter who punishes mistakes but can be exposed by pitchers willing to bury breaking balls off the plate.
He has already moved off shortstop. Severino did not play the position in 2026, splitting his time among third base (58 games), left field (39) and first base (18) after erratic defense at short earlier in his career. Moving around the diamond lets the bat carry him without demanding much from the glove. Right-handed pitching was the bigger problem this year: he hit .235/.288/.485 against righties compared with .337/.384/.674 against lefties.
The power projection is legitimate, built on plus bat speed and hard contact. The question for Glendale is whether he makes enough contact against better fastballs and sharper breaking balls to be more than a pull-heavy threat with an exploitable chase habit. If pitchers repeatedly put sliders at his back foot and he keeps expanding, that is a meaningful data point heading into an offseason where Pittsburgh has to decide how this profile fits its long-range plans.
Carmichael Gets More Double-A Reps
Easton Carmichael, a 2025 third-round pick out of Oklahoma, split his first full pro season between High-A Greensboro and Double-A Altoona. He hit .305/.350/.518 in 74 High-A games before a late-July promotion, then batted .244/.313/.412 with four home runs and eight doubles in 37 games at Altoona. The numbers dipped with the jump, but 20 home runs and 92 RBI across 111 games is solid production for a 22-year-old catcher working through two levels.
Carmichael is an aggressive hitter who walked in just 6.8 percent of his plate appearances at both stops, so his contact quality will keep getting tested at Double-A. The long-term catching projection is uncertain given a below-average arm and receiving that is still developing, and first base or DH is the fallback. The AFL gives him more at-bats against upper-level pitching and more reps behind the plate. He sits No. 30 on 80Grade's Pirates list, and his ability to drive the ball against advanced pitching makes this a useful audition.
The Pitching Group: Command Problems, Whiff Upside, and One Lefty
The five arms Pittsburgh sent to Glendale present a range of situations, most of them centered on one shared problem: throwing strikes.
Zander Mueth is the headliner of the concern cases. The 21-year-old right-hander posted a 9.18 ERA in 33.1 innings at Single-A Bradenton this season and walked more batters than he struck out (34 walks, 28 strikeouts, counting one rehab start). He spent nearly three months on the injured list before a Florida Complex League rehab outing in late July. His stuff is not the problem. Statcast tracked his four-seamer and sinker at about 94 to 95 mph on average this year, touching 99, and he pairs them with a sweeping slider, a cutter and a developing changeup. The issue is that the low three-quarter slot and long-levered frame make his release hard to repeat, and when it drifts, the moving fastball becomes a noncompetitive miss rather than a weapon. His 2024 complex-league debut featured a 1.58 ERA and 56 strikeouts in 51.1 innings, so the upside is documented. Arizona is about establishing some baseline command and getting more innings after a short, difficult year.
Cristhian Tortosa, 27, is the most professionally experienced arm in the group, having signed with the Tigers in 2015. The left-hander opened 2026 at Double-A Reading in the Phillies' system and struggled (8.36 ERA in 14 innings), was released in early June and signed with Pittsburgh days later. After a brief tune-up at the lower levels, he struck out 35.8 percent of the batters he faced in 30.1 innings at Double-A Altoona with a 3.56 ERA, and he finished the season with one outing at Triple-A Indianapolis. The swing-and-miss is the selling point; a 17.3 percent walk rate for the season is the problem. The AFL gives Pittsburgh a longer look at whether the command trends toward functional.
Michael Walsh brings a better control profile than most of this group. The 25-year-old right-hander walked 6.8 percent of the batters he faced across 47 innings, most of them at Altoona, with a 24.6 percent strikeout rate. His 4.60 ERA was not encouraging, and he allowed seven home runs in 38 Double-A innings around two stints on the injured list and a brief Triple-A stop. He is a relief-depth arm getting a chance to show his stuff can miss bats consistently against upper-level hitters.
Brandon Cain, a 2025 19th-round pick out of Oklahoma, spent most of the season in relief at Bradenton before 13 appearances at Greensboro. His combined 14.3 percent walk rate is high. He works with a five-pitch mix that includes a cutter and a changeup, and the AFL lets him show that arsenal in shorter, concentrated bursts. Bryan Mena, whom Pittsburgh took from the Rockies in the minor-league phase of the Rule 5 draft last December, worked mostly as a starter at Greensboro, posting a 4.87 ERA in 22 appearances (14 starts) and 88.2 innings. His 9.5 percent walk rate is manageable, but he allowed 19 home runs and missed about five weeks on the injured list late in the season, so the AFL is a chance to add innings in a competitive setting.
Bottom Line
Sanford is the player Pittsburgh will watch most closely this fall. He is the highest-ranked prospect in the group, No. 231 overall in the 80Grade Prospect Rank and No. 7 on the Pirates list, with a legitimate everyday ceiling, and the hand injury cost him two months he would have spent facing better competition. How he handles Fall League breaking balls, the pitches behind his swing-and-miss, will shape how Pittsburgh views him heading into 2027. Severino's power will draw attention, but the contact profile needs watching before anyone projects a higher ceiling. The rest of the group is developmental depth: a catcher adding Double-A reps and several arms working through command issues. Glendale is about Sanford first, Severino second, and innings for nearly everyone else.