Arizona Fall League Preview: St. Louis Cardinals
By Caleb Hughes ·
The Cardinals' 2026 Arizona Fall League group is part health check, part development push. Tekoah Roby returns to the mound after missing the entire regular season. Tai Peete is making up at-bats lost to four injured list stints. Nate Dohm needs innings after a difficult High-A year, and a cluster of Springfield arms gets an audition against advanced hitters. All nine players join the Peoria Javelinas.
Roby's Post-Tommy John Audition Begins in the Desert
Tekoah Roby has no 2026 stats because he spent the year recovering from Tommy John surgery, which he had on July 25, 2025. He has not pitched in a game since July 10, 2025, with Triple-A Memphis, which makes his AFL spot the most consequential piece of this group. The desert stint needs to answer whether the stuff held through the reconstruction.
Before the surgery, his 80Grade scouting report had the fastball sitting around 96 mph and touching 99, with a plus curveball that has excellent depth. The changeup became a usable third pitch in 2025 after the Cardinals reworked his grip, and his command took a step forward: he walked 19 batters in 78.1 innings between Double-A Springfield and Memphis. The projection is a mid-rotation starter, but durability has always been part of the risk. He had a history of arm trouble before the elbow gave out, and he has never thrown more than 104.2 innings in a pro season. 80Grade's prospect rankings have him No. 25 in the Cardinals system.
Roby turned 25 in September. If he gets through his AFL outings in the mid-90s with the curveball snapping the way it did in 2025, the Cardinals will have a clearer sense of their 2027 rotation depth. If the stuff is down or the command is erratic, the timeline extends.
Peete Producing Power-Speed Numbers, Still Fighting Swing-and-Miss
Tai Peete's 2026 season looks better than the circumstances suggest. He went on the injured list twice in May, once in July, and again on August 30, which limited him to 63 games across High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield, plus three rehab games in the Florida Complex League. In those 63 games he hit .307/.367/.569 with 13 home runs, seven triples, 15 stolen bases, and a .263 ISO. He kept hitting after an August 4 promotion to Springfield, batting .319 in 21 games. 80Grade ranks him No. 19 in the Cardinals system.
The scouting read is more nuanced. Peete came over from Seattle in the February 2026 trade that sent Brendan Donovan to the Mariners, and he has played mostly center field since 2025. His 80Grade report gives him a plus arm and enough athleticism for center, though his reads and routes still need work. The hit tool grades at 40, and the cause is familiar: an aggressive approach, a vulnerability to breaking balls, and a strikeout rate of 26.7% across High-A and Double-A this year. A below-average hit tool at 21 can erode quickly against upper-level pitching if the chase does not improve.
The purpose of this AFL stint is straightforward: at-bats against quality pitching. If he shows a willingness to work with two strikes and lay off spin away, that will be a meaningful signal. The power was the headline of his 2026 season, and the discipline is the question that follows him into October.
Dohm Working Through a Difficult Year, Looking for a Reset
Nate Dohm's 2026 High-A numbers were hard to look at. In 59.1 innings at Peoria, he posted a 7.43 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP, walked 14.2% of the batters he faced, and allowed nine home runs. He also spent part of August on the 7-day injured list. A September look at Double-A produced two scoreless innings, too small a sample to read much into.
The 2024 third-round pick out of Mississippi State, who came from the Mets in the July 2025 Ryan Helsley trade, still has the arsenal to project. His 80Grade report has the fastball at 92 to 96 mph, and he pairs it with a slider and curveball that have shown bat-missing ability; his 23.2% strikeout rate across 61.1 innings shows the whiffs are there. The issue is strike-throwing. Only about 57% of his 2026 pitches went for strikes, and he averaged 18.7 pitches per inning. The walk and hit totals point to a pitcher who was too often behind in the count and too often over the plate when he needed a strike.
The AFL assignment is about innings. A cleaner command showing in the desert, even in a small sample, would shape how the organization carries him into 2027 spring camp.
Sammy Hernandez's Plate Discipline Makes Him Worth Watching
Sammy Hernandez is 22 and spent 2026 at High-A Peoria, posting a line that stands out more than his scouting grades do. In 65 games, he hit .279/.411/.529 with 11 home runs, 18 doubles, and 21 stolen bases. He walked in 17.0% of his plate appearances and struck out in 18.6%, an advanced approach for the level.
The tool grades on his 80Grade report are modest: average hit tool, below-average power, average arm, and fringe-average defense behind the plate. The projection is a bench catcher with an on-base lean. Still, catchers who walk 17% of the time at High-A at 22 are worth tracking, and the AFL will test whether that discipline holds against better pitching and whether the receiving can tighten.
The Pitching Round-Up: Watson, Sparks, King, and Elissalt
Michael Watson spent all of 2026 in Springfield's bullpen and stayed busy: 46 appearances, 52.2 innings, 72 strikeouts, and a 29.1% strikeout rate. The problem is a 15.0% walk rate and a 4.96 ERA. The left-hander misses bats, but at 24 he needs to show the walks can come down before anyone projects him as a high-leverage arm.
Nolan Sparks had a clear level split in 2026. At High-A, his ERA was 5.25 in 48 innings; at Springfield, it was 2.79 in 19.1. The Double-A numbers are more encouraging, with a 34.6% strikeout rate and a 1.14 WHIP. The 11.1% walk rate there is still elevated and the sample is small, so the 24-year-old needs a longer look to show the late-season results hold up.
Joseph King opened 2026 on the 60-day injured list and did not pitch until a July rehab assignment, so his season covered three stops and only 18 innings. The Single-A line at Palm Beach was excellent: 12 strikeouts in 8.1 innings, a 3.24 ERA, and a 3.0% walk rate. The Double-A stint went less smoothly, with a 7.04 ERA in 7.2 innings and a 12.1% walk rate. The combined 31.5% strikeout rate suggests bat-missing ability, and the AFL gives him a steady run of innings to see where the command sits.
Frank Elissalt has no 2026 stats because he spent the entire season on the 60-day injured list, from March 18 until his activation on September 15. The right-hander came over from the Mets with Dohm in the Helsley trade. His 80Grade report has the fastball sitting around 95 mph with strong vertical break, but his command slipped when he reached High-A Peoria in 2025, where he walked eight in 9.2 innings. After a lost year, the AFL gives him innings and a chance to show whether that walk rate was a blip.
Cade McGee Moves Around the Diamond
Cade McGee played mostly third base in 2025, then moved all over the field in 2026, catching 24 games for Peoria while also playing first, second, third, and designated hitter. The AFL roster lists him at third base. At High-A he hit .220/.366/.426 across 86 games with 14 home runs and a 13.2% walk rate, a step up from his 2025 Single-A line. A 10-game Springfield stint produced .333/.429/.694. The AFL extends a season that ended at 96 games.
Bottom line: no storyline in this group carries more weight than Roby's arm. If he comes out of the AFL in the mid-90s with a sharp curveball, the Cardinals have a potential 2027 rotation piece back from a full year off. Every other player here has something to prove, but none of their fall assignments carries the same organizational weight.