Brewers Prospect Weekly: Letson's September Surge, Fischer Keeps Mashing at Biloxi
By Mason Grant ·
Brewers Prospect Weekly covers the last 7 days of action for the Brewers farm system.
Letson's Last 30 Days Are Worth Your Full Attention
Bishop Letson (AA, RHP, Rank: 15) went 6.2 innings this week, allowing no earned runs on four hits while striking out 12 and generating 16 swinging misses across 87 pitches, 54 of which went for strikes. The walk column was empty. For a pitcher whose Double-A walk rate sits at 11.1 percent on the season and whose command grade is a 45, a start without a free pass is a headline unto itself. The four-seamer and sinker, both sitting 94-98 with extension that makes the numbers play up, set the table for a sweeping slider that flashed late two-plane action against right-handed hitters. When those pitches tunnel properly off the same release point, the swing decisions get genuinely messy, and 16 swinging misses against 24 batters faced is what that looks like in the box score.
The larger context is what makes this start matter. Over his last 30 days at Double-A, Letson is posting a 1.61 ERA across 22.1 innings with a 37.0 percent strikeout rate and a 33.1 percent whiff rate, a 51.8 percent strike rate, and just one home run allowed. Those are numbers that look nothing like the 4.85 ERA and 24.9 percent whiff rate he carries on the full season. The command has clearly tightened, the stuff has not diminished, and the secondary mix is functional enough to get through lineups in longer outings. A 45 command grade and a 22-year-old starter with shoulder history in his recent past are real considerations; the floor is still a multi-inning bullpen role if the walks return. But the September version of Letson, the one who generated a 34-strikeout month while walking eight across four starts, is the version that makes the number-four starter projection feel like a floor rather than a ceiling. That gap between his season-long numbers and his recent form is the most compelling storyline in the Biloxi rotation right now.
Fischer's Walk Rate Spikes and the Home Runs Keep Coming
Andrew Fischer (AA, 3B, Rank: 7) went 4-for-13 with two home runs and seven RBI this week, pushing his season total to 50 home runs across 560 combined plate appearances at High-A and Double-A. The counting numbers are absurd at this point, but the more interesting development over the past month is what has happened to his approach. Over his last 30 days, Fischer is walking at a 24.4 percent clip across 86 plate appearances, up from an already-strong 18.2 percent walk rate on the full season. The swing rate has dropped to 44.1 percent, nearly five points below his season mark, and the contact rate has held at 63.3 percent, consistent with what he has produced all year. The combination of maintained contact and a sharply elevated walk rate means pitchers are choosing to go around him more frequently, and when they do challenge him, the damage is arriving at a 50-homer pace.
The scouting profile grades the power at 65 and projects an everyday first-base or corner role, with a 50 hit tool and genuine concern about holes against elevated velocity and breaking balls away. None of that has changed. What has changed is the volume of evidence that the approach is real and not a small-sample product: 102 walks across 560 plate appearances, a contact rate that has held steady across two levels, and a strikeout rate that, while sitting at 33.0 percent on the season, coexists with a .412 on-base percentage and 50 home runs. A 22-year-old left-handed hitter doing this at Double-A with a walk rate north of 18 percent is not a profile you can easily dismiss with a note about swing-and-miss concerns. I would take the over on a second-division-regular ceiling without hesitation at this point, and the everyday projection is looking more like the median outcome than the optimistic one.
Quick Hits
Josh Adamczewski (AA, OF, Rank: 6) · drove in a run on three hits, including a homer, and drew two walks across 13 plate appearances this week. The season-long picture at Double-A is a 13.1 percent walk rate and a 19.4 percent strikeout rate, and over the last 30 days those numbers have moved in the right direction: a 21.2 percent walk rate and a 20.0 percent strikeout rate across 85 plate appearances, with a swing rate that has dipped to 40.7 percent. A 55 hit tool and 50 power grade with that zone control is a useful combination. The combined slash of .300/.417/.509 with 18 home runs and 78 walks across 494 plate appearances on the season is legitimately strong for a 21-year-old outfielder in his first extended Double-A look.
Braylon Payne (AA, OF, Rank: 4) · went 5-for-15 with a double and two walks this week, a contact-heavy stretch for a hitter who entered Double-A with power as the calling card. Over his last 30 days he is slashing at a .542 slugging clip with five home runs and a 31.5 percent strikeout rate across 89 plate appearances, which tracks with a 51.4 percent swing rate and a 64.7 percent contact rate. The walk rate has dipped to 5.6 percent over that span, a drop from his season-long 10.5 percent mark, and the aggression is readable in those numbers. At 20 years old with a 70 speed tool and 28 combined home runs, the profile's everyday-center-fielder ceiling is still very much intact; the swing decisions against spin at Double-A are the developmental variable worth watching.
Coleman Crow (AAA, RHP, Rank: 29) · threw 5.1 innings of one-run ball at Nashville this week, allowing five hits and a walk while striking out six and generating 12 swinging misses on 95 pitches. His ERA at Triple-A sits at 3.59 across 105.1 innings this season, though the last 30 days have been bumpier: a 4.15 ERA with a 15.5 percent strikeout rate across 21.2 innings. He is a command-dependent arm with a 45 command grade and a fifth-starter/up-down projection, and the strikeout rate over this recent stretch is the number to watch. This week's outing was cleaner than the recent trend.
Jesús Made (AA, SS, Rank: 1) · had a modest week at Biloxi, going 3-for-13 with a double, two walks, and two RBI. A switch-hitter with a 60 hit tool and 60 speed, he has produced a 14.3 percent strikeout rate across 558 plate appearances at Double-A this season, one of the cleaner contact profiles in the system. The recent 30-day contact rate of 87.2 percent is the strongest stretch of ball-in-play contact he has shown all year. A week from a 19-year-old spending a full season at Double-A is not worth much alarm; the broader numbers remain strong.