Reds Prospect Weekly: Morillo's Monster Week, Confidan Erupts at Double-A
By Peyton Hayes ·
Morillo Keeps Mashing
Jirvin Morillo (A, C, Rank: 29) was already the system's most talked-about hitter after winning the Reds' Minor League Player of the Month award for July, a month in which he slashed .344 with 7 home runs, 23 RBI, and a 1.277 OPS across 18 games at Low-A Dayton. Then he went out and did it again. This week he posted 3 hits, 2 home runs, and 7 RBI in just 14 plate appearances, continuing a last-30-day stretch that now reads .210/.380/.548 with 6 home runs and 22 RBI in 79 trips to the plate. For perspective: that OPS is north of .920 over a full month for a 19-year-old switch-hitting catcher who entered the season with a complex-ball profile and a quad-A projection. The combined 2026 line across the complex and Low-A now sits at .297/.430/.607 with 15 home runs in 287 plate appearances, already tripling his 2025 home run total in roughly twice the at-bats.
The scouting file grades him as a 50/50 hit/power catcher, and the projection is cautious for good reason: the swing-and-miss is real, with a 56 percent contact rate that ranks among the lowest in the system, and the receiving and blocking are still closer to fringe-average than anything a team would comfortably run out every night. His selectivity has been remarkable lately, a 36 percent swing rate over the last 30 days, which is well into disciplined territory and is producing an absurd walk total. But that same selective approach bumps up against his contact limitations, and the strikeout counts will matter more as he faces better spin. The realistic debate right now is not whether Morillo is a star, but whether the offensive production is durable enough against full-season arms to push his ceiling above the conservative bat-first backup projection. Nothing about this stretch answers that definitively, but at 19, he is forcing the Reds to at least ask a different set of questions.
Confidan Gives Double-A His Best Shot
Yerlin Confidan (AA, OF, Rank: 43) has spent most of his time at Double-A Chattanooga doing what evaluators feared: carrying the swing-and-miss rate that plagued his full High-A season in 2025 into tougher competition. He batted .224/.315/.320 across 474 plate appearances in that High-A campaign, an underwhelming line for a 23-year-old with a 55 raw power grade, and the promotion to Double-A in 2026 initially produced more of the same. Then this week happened. Confidan went 10-for-26 with 2 doubles, a home run, 3 RBI, and 4 walks against just 3 strikeouts, putting a different frame around his last-30-day numbers at Chattanooga: .283/.330/.446 with 3 home runs in 100 plate appearances. He carries a 60 arm and enough athleticism to hold down a corner, and the power shows up when he makes contact, which is the central limitation and the central variable.
The concern has always been pitch sequencing revealing his swing length and the zone-judgment gaps that produce elevated strikeout totals. He has 36 strikeouts against 11 walks in 149 Double-A plate appearances this season, a ratio that keeps the hit tool grade where it sits. But the exit velocity and impact when he squares a pitch are real, and a week where the contact rate held up, the walks showed up, and the power translated is meaningful evidence. He projects as a bench corner bat whose best path involves punishing mistakes and logging enough damage against left-handed pitching to carve out a role. This week was a reminder of what that looks like at its best. Whether it becomes a trend or a highlight reel entry depends on the contact rate holding against upper-level arms over the next month.
Quick Hits
Arnaldo Lantigua (A, OF, Rank: 14) · drove in 5 runs on 8 hits in 28 plate appearances, drawing 7 walks and striking out just twice. The discipline is the story: over the last 30 days he is slashing .309/.453/.457 with a 22-to-10 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 106 plate appearances, a far cry from the aggressive, swing-heavy approach that concerned evaluators earlier in his development. The season line at Low-A now stands at .253/.376/.418 with 10 home runs in 356 plate appearances, and the power-and-patience combination puts his second-division right-field projection firmly in play if the contact quality holds as he climbs.
Carter Graham (AA, 1B, Rank: 53) · went 8-for-23 with 4 doubles and 3 RBI, the most contact-oriented week of his Double-A stint so far. The plus raw power with a 60 power grade has been the calling card since his promotion to Chattanooga, but the doubles total this week showed a different version: gap contact and barrel control rather than lift-and-pull damage. His combined 2026 line across High-A and Double-A sits at .303/.425/.566 with 24 home runs in 457 plate appearances, a production pace that makes the quad-A projection feel conservative even if the strikeouts and fringe athleticism cap the ceiling.
Justin Lebron (A+, SS, Rank: 2) · homered twice and drove in 5 runs in his first 21 plate appearances at High-A Dayton, looking every bit the part of the system's second-ranked prospect making a level jump. He went 6-for-21 with 2 doubles and a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in a small sample, and the aggressive 51 percent swing rate is worth watching given the hit tool questions that persist even with a 60 power grade and 60 field grade. Lebron signed in July and has now played just six games above the complex, so the results are tiny in sample size; still, the power showing up immediately against better competition aligns with the everyday shortstop projection demands.
Jay Allen II (AAA, OF, Rank: 42) · earned a promotion to Triple-A Louisville on August 12, his first taste of the level after posting a .280/.374/.483 line with 15 home runs and 17 stolen bases across 377 plate appearances at Double-A Chattanooga. The promotion is well-earned; that Double-A line was the best sustained offensive stretch of his career. He went 3-for-17 in his first 17 Triple-A plate appearances, a rough adjustment to the higher level that is not unusual. The tools that got him here, namely the speed and defense with emerging pop, still project as a fourth-outfielder floor at minimum, and the question now is whether the Double-A production represents a real offensive step forward or fades against better arms.
Leo Balcazar (AAA, SS, Rank: 24) · went 6-for-23 with 2 doubles, a triple, and 3 RBI in his second week at Triple-A Louisville after being promoted from Double-A on August 4. The recent-30-day numbers at Double-A were bleak, a .202/.283/.292 line in 99 plate appearances, so the active week against Triple-A pitching is encouraging. A contact-oriented infielder who projects to second base and a utility role, Balcazar does not need to hit for power to be useful, but the swing rate has crept toward 50 percent lately, which tracks with the walk and slugging dip. The 12 combined Double-A and Triple-A plate appearances in 2026 do not tell a complete story yet, but the contact tools and versatility remain the reason to watch.
Luke Hayden (AA, RHP, Rank: 51) · turned in 6 innings of 3-run ball in his second Double-A start, striking out 7 and allowing 2 hits while issuing 3 walks. The ERA across his two Chattanooga starts now sits at 3.60 with 13 strikeouts in 10 innings, a strong early sample after his promotion from High-A on August 7. The walk rate remains the consistent thread of concern through every level: the 40 command grade is real, and 3 free passes in 6 innings at Double-A does not suggest it has been solved. But the whiff rate over the last 30 days at High-A was 41.7 percent, elite territory, driven by a fastball-slider-changeup mix that generates swings and misses even when the command wanders. The path to a fifth-starter outcome is open; he just has to stop falling behind so often.
Stharlin Torres (A+, RHP, Rank: 47) · worked 4.1 innings of one-run ball at High-A Dayton, allowing 3 hits and striking out 2 while issuing 4 walks. The results were modest but the context is encouraging: Torres posted a 1.47 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his last 30 days at Low-A before the promotion to Dayton on August 4, and his best weapon is a changeup that grades at 55 and gives him a real separation pitch even as the breaking balls remain fringe-average. The four-walk outing is a reminder that the 45 command grade carries real consequences when the strike rate dips below 40 percent. A back-end starter ceiling is plausible if he sharpens one breaking ball into a reliable chase option.
Angel Nuñez (RK, OF, Rank: 45) · hit a home run and drove in 7 runs across 21 plate appearances, drawing 3 walks against 4 strikeouts. Over the last 30 days at the complex level, he is slashing .292/.398/.444 with 2 home runs and 19 RBI in 89 plate appearances. A 60 speed grade and 55 arm project him as a legitimate center fielder, and the below-average power grade remains the main developmental question for the 17-year-old. Nuñez was assigned to the DSL on August 4; the counting numbers this week suggest he is doing plenty of damage for a teenager still learning how hard professional pitching is.
Kyle Henley (A+, OF, Rank: 39) · was placed on the seven-day injured list at High-A Dayton, retroactive to August 10. His last appearance came on August 9. Henley had posted a .261/.344/.356 line with 2 home runs and 31 stolen bases at Low-A before earning the promotion to Dayton, where he managed 25 plate appearances. The speed tool is the carrying piece of his profile, and the stolen base pace at Low-A was notable in the system. No injury diagnosis has been confirmed.
JeanPierre Ortiz (A+, RHP, Rank: 46) · went 5 innings of one-run ball with 6 strikeouts, 2 hits, and 3 walks in his best outing since mid-July. The season ERA at High-A Dayton sits at 5.47 across 54.1 innings, and the last-30-day ERA of 6.61 with a 19.3 percent whiff rate had been trending the wrong direction. A 93-to-96 fastball and a changeup that can generate timing differences give him enough to project as a long reliever or up-down arm, but the command at 45 keeps the ceiling in check. One strong start after a rough stretch is a data point, not a correction.
Jose Acuna (AAA, RHP, Rank: 28) · went 6 innings with 2 earned runs, 6 strikeouts, and just 1 walk against Triple-A Sacramento, a needed positive outing after a brutal last-30-day stretch of an 8.44 ERA and 14 walks in 16 innings at Louisville. The season ERA at Triple-A stands at 6.96 in 32.1 innings, a sharp contrast from the 3.54 ERA he posted across 84 Double-A innings earlier this year. The command grade of 40 and the walk totals tell the same story at every level: the fastball-slider-changeup mix is serviceable, but the walks turn manageable situations into costly ones. Six innings and one walk is what the fifth-starter projection requires more consistently.