Wrigleyville Weekly Prospect Update
By Reed Kubiak ·
Challenges for Jostin Florentio in High A
Jostin Florentino (A+, RHP, Rank: 18) has struggled in High-A with a 5.68 ERA and 1.66 WHIP through four starts, including a 3-inning outing on Friday in which he gave up 1 run with 2 strikeouts and 5 walks. After a successful year in Single-A with a 1.96 ERA, this season hasn't brought the same results.
I see two potential reasons for these struggles. First, he heavily relies on a two-pitch mix. Most successful starters have three offerings or two plus-pitches with one being platoon neutral. Florentino's fastball lacks the velocity to overpower High-A hitters, showing up as lower whiff rates compared to last season at Single-A. The 90 MPH fastball isn’t generating late swings and misses, and hitters are timing it better. Additionally, pitch locations that induced swings and misses last year are turning into hits. Florentino's fastball has below-average shape, leading to fewer out-of-zone chases. Though he has a great slider with plus spin and sweep, High-A hitters are more discerning and aren't chasing it as much. While his slider is maintaining his strikeout numbers—13 K's in 12.2 innings—it's also responsible for generating 12 walks.
This 2-pitch limitation is really showing up in his splits. Strangely, he's faced more lefty hitters this year than righties. Righties have just a .530 OPS this season while lefties are getting him with a .891 OPS. Those splits were relatively neutral last year.
To address this, Florentino is working on a changeup, but it's still in the early stages of development. This pitch could add variety and help him attack the zone more effectively. Furthermore, he needs to recognize that his fastball requires precise command. He'll need to attack the zone early in counts to maintain count leverage. He'll need to use his slider in the zone early, then try to draw out-of-zone chases later in counts to his gloveside. This approach could increase the slider's effectiveness if started in the zone. Ultimately, developing a third pitch and reducing walks are crucial for Florentino's future as a starter; otherwise, he may transition to a relief role.
The second issue is really a product of the first: he isn't getting the out-of-zone misses he had last year. Part of this is he is nibbling and working behind in the count too often. Last season, he had a 65% strike rate and was attacking hitters. This season he's at 56% limiting the times he's ahead and in command of the at-bat.
Adjustments for Big League Future
BJ Murray (AAA, 3B) is having one of the best seasons of his career at 26 years old, boasting an exceptional slash line of .323/.409/.505 and this week having 8 total bases through 5 games. This raises the question: does BJ Murray have a future in the MLB? As a switch-hitting 15th-round pick in the 2021 draft out of Florida Atlantic, he didn't come with high expectations. However, he has steadily progressed through the minor league system and is now excelling in AAA, though there are some concerns. He struggles significantly against right-handed pitching, with a .206 average against righties since 2023. This could be a significant hurdle in the big leagues, limiting his opportunities. Defensively, he is not the most athletic option. While he could be average to above average at 3B or 1B, relying on him to play outfield or middle infield consistently might be a stretch. At 26, time is not on his side. It's promising to see him performing well at the highest minor league level, and he might soon get his MLB chance. However, given the Cubs' depth at the Major League level, he might also become a trade piece at the deadline.
James Triantos (AAA, 2B, Rank: 9) has consistently shown his hitting prowess in the Cubs organization, maintaining a solid batting average and on-base percentage throughout his minor league career. The bat-to-ball skills are evident, and at 23, he is nearing MLB readiness. However, his path to the majors is challenged due to questions about his secondary skills. His hard-hit rate is below the league average, suggesting his contact lacks consistent impact. This is evident in his .124 ISO this season. While Triantos' gets on base, it is primarily driven by his batting agerage. Over the last season and a half, he's only walked in 6.3% of his plate appearances. Defensively, he's made solid strides and is servicable at second base. The 80Grade community sees him as a utility player or contact-speed role. Improving his contact quality and power metrics are the likeliest path to to secure a spot on a major league roster and potentially become a reliable everyday option.
Quick Hits
Fernando Cruz (RK, SS, Rank: 46) has had a rather underwhelming career given the $4 million investment the Cubs made in him in January 2024. The 19-year-old has struggled, posting a .212 batting average and .658 OPS over 68 games with the organization. However, this past week marked a turning point, as he hit .473 with four extra-base hits in five games. This performance hints at Cruz's true potential and what he might offer in the future.
Kane Kepley (A+, LF, Rank: 7) is one of the Cubs' standout prospects this year, with an impressive .851 OPS. His BB/K ratio of 1.53, the second-best in all of High A, highlights his exceptional plate discipline and ability to minimize strikeouts. This skill is crucial in modern player development, where success goes beyond merely hitting the ball. He continues to excel, drawing 4 walks in 6 games this week.
Jefferson Rojas (AA, SS, Rank: 2) has had a tough May at the plate, hitting just .225. However, this week has been a different story, as he's batting .350 with 7 of his 20 hits this month coming in this stretch. His season average has climbed to .246, a level not reached since May 10. This is a promising development for the 21-year-old, and if he can maintain this momentum, positive outcomes may follow.
Owen Ayers (AA, C, Rank: 20) hasn't matched his previous production since moving up to AA, but he certainly has a knack for hitting home runs. Since his promotion, Ayers has hit 7 homers in 29 games, with 2 of those coming in the past 5 games. Although he has faced some challenges at this level, his home run tally is a definite boost to his stat sheet.
Ty Southisene (A+, SS, Rank: 27) has emerged as a standout Cubs prospect thanks to his new patient approach. His high walk rates and low strikeout numbers demonstrate his ability to get on base, even though his power numbers could be stronger. This week has been a continuation of his productive season, with 8 hits and 4 walks in 6 games, including a 3-hit performance and a hit-by-pitch on the 27th, showcasing his on-base skills.