Braves Prospect Weekly: Williams Erupts for 5 Homers, Essenburg's Power Binge Hits High-A
By JT Murphy ·
Williams Obliterates a Week
Dixon Williams (A+, 2B, Rank: 27) reframed his season with a remarkable performance. Over 32 plate appearances, he ripped 12 hits including three doubles, a triple, and five home runs, driving in 17 runs. The 22-year-old left-handed hitter has been a dangerous bat in the Rome lineup over the last 30 days, slashing .277/.353/.604 with eight home runs and 28 RBI across 25 games. His season line now reads .235/.337/.466 with 19 home runs through 92 games, putting him on pace for a 20-plus-homer season at High-A.
The scouting conversation around Williams has always centered on whether the hit tool can hold up against pro pitching. He is an aggressive hitter with a 51% swing rate this season, and his contact rate of 65.7% is below average, resulting in 117 strikeouts on the year. Over the last 30 days, his contact rate has dipped further to 60.5% even as the power has spiked, so this profile has not suddenly solved the swing-and-miss issue. What it has done is weaponize the power to a degree that keeps him in the everyday-second-baseman conversation. He has the speed and defensive profile to stay at second base, and if he can stabilize the contact rate even modestly as he matures, the combination of pull power, baserunning, and position fits the projecting role. Weeks like this keep the ceiling very much alive.
Essenburg Is Running Out of Room at Single-A
Conor Essenburg (A+, OF, Rank: 15) did not have a flashy raw line in the box score this week: five hits in 31 plate appearances, one double, one RBI. But he drew 13 walks. Thirteen. He reached base at an absurd clip, which fits perfectly into what has been a genuinely remarkable 30-day stretch. Over his last 25 games at Augusta and into his early time at Rome, he has posted a .337/.500/.698 line with eight home runs, 26 RBI, and 29 walks against 22 strikeouts across 118 plate appearances. A walk rate that high, paired with real power, stands out at any level.
Essenburg is only 19 years old and has a 55 power grade with a plus arm that profiles in right field. The contact rate sits at 68.5% on the year, which is below average, and his swing rate of 35.2% is among the most selective in the system. He is not hacking; he is hunting pitches, and when he gets them, the damage is real. The 15 home runs and .509 slugging across three levels this season are backed by legitimate bat speed and an ascending power profile. His hit tool grades out at 45 presently, and the swing can get long against quality spin, but the combination of on-base ability and raw power output at 19 makes the current second-division projection look conservative. A full commitment to High-A and a summer of reps there will reveal where his ceiling truly sits.
Quick Hits
- Alex Lodise (A+, SS, Rank: 16) · went 12-for-32 with two doubles, two home runs, and seven RBI while striking out just once in 32 plate appearances. Lodise has 25 home runs on the combined season, and over the last 30 days he is slashing .330/.430/.610 with a contact rate of 80.5% — a marked improvement from his A-ball profile and a sign that the swing-and-miss concerns that defined his earlier grades may be responding to development. The everyday-third-base projection looks more credible with each passing week.
- Garrett Baumann (AA, RHP, Rank: 13) · delivered nine innings of two-run ball on seven hits and zero walks with eight strikeouts. The zero-walk outing is the headline: command has been a career-long question for the big right-hander, and going nine innings without a free pass at Double-A is meaningful progress. His season ERA sits at 6.29 combined across levels, weighed down heavily by a brutal seven-start stretch in Triple-A earlier this year, but his AA numbers (4.57 ERA, 74 strikeouts in 69 innings) are more representative of what the fastball and curveball combo can do when he fills the zone.
- Herick Hernandez (AAA, LHP, Rank: 20) · struck out 11 over 6.1 innings against just two hits, though four walks prevented a clean outing. The 11-punchout performance is vintage Hernandez: the slider misses bats at a 36.8% whiff rate, and the fastball plays up in the zone, but the walk-rate volatility (52 walks across 72.2 innings this season) remains the clearest obstacle between him and a genuine MLB role. He is projected as a long reliever, and outings like this show why the stuff keeps the conversation going.
- Owen Murphy (AAA, RHP, Rank: 6) · turned in six innings of two-run ball on five hits with one walk and five strikeouts. Murphy has a 2.91 ERA over his last five Triple-A starts, which is the form the Braves need to see as his MLB debut window approaches. He has already logged three appearances for Atlanta this season and holds a 3.52 ERA in 79.1 innings at Gwinnett. The back-end starter profile remains intact.
- John Gil (AA, SS, Rank: 7) · went 8-for-28 with a double, a homer, and two RBI while drawing four walks in his second week at Double-A. Gil has 49 stolen bases on the combined season and continues to flash the on-base ability that makes his speed play up; he is hitting .311/.407/.444 across 54 Double-A plate appearances since his promotion. The power grade is 40 and that is not changing anytime soon, but the speed-and-OBP combination is a legitimate tool set if the bat holds at the new level.
- Eric Hartman (AA, OF, Rank: 1) · drew six walks, was hit by a pitch, and collected seven hits across 29 plate appearances with three RBI. Since arriving at Double-A, the 20-year-old is posting a .244/.410/.356 line with an aggressive walk rate that suggests his approach has tightened even as the slugging has dipped from his eye-popping High-A numbers (24 home runs, .525 slugging at Rome). He has a 70-grade speed tool and a 60 arm to go with the emerging power; the gap between his current 45 hit grade and his ceiling is the conversation happening right now in Columbus.
- Carter Beck (A, OF, Rank: 10) · drove in five runs on nine hits including a homer in 26 plate appearances. Beck is hitting .409/.480/.500 through 11 games at Augusta in his professional debut, showing the contact skills and corner-outfield profile that made him a draft priority. Six stolen bases add a wrinkle to the bat-first projection. I'd take the over on his current 50 hit tool given what the early returns look like.
- Luke Sinnard (A+, RHP, Rank: 19) · gave the Rome rotation four clean innings on two hits, no walks, and four strikeouts. Sinnard is the most polished young starter in the system below Double-A: he has a 2.57 ERA across 35 innings this season, a 95-97 mph four-seamer, and a plus cutter-slider combination that generates a 36.8% whiff rate. Four innings is a modest workload, likely a product of managing his pitch count after Tommy John surgery, but the results continue to be spotless.
- Cody Miller (A+, SS, Rank: 31) · collected five hits and two RBI with five walks in 19 plate appearances. Miller is sitting at a .404 OBP over his last 30 days at Augusta, driven largely by a 35.9% swing rate that leads to an above-average walk total. The 49 stolen bases on the combined season are real, and the defensive versatility keeps him on the roster bubble; the offense just needs to find more consistent hard contact to push him toward an everyday profile.