Friar Futures: Sanabria's Scorching September, Schoolcraft Fans Eight at Lake Elsinore
By Alex Martinez ·
Friar Futures covers the last 7 days of action for the Padres farm system.
Sanabria's September Is Getting Hard to Dismiss
Romeo Sanabria (AA, 1B, Rank: 28) went 7-for-24 with two home runs and seven RBI across 24 plate appearances at San Antonio this week, adding five walks against five strikeouts. Those counting numbers are the headline, but they sit inside a larger 30-day stretch that has been legitimately exceptional: over his last 30 days at Double-A, he is slashing .432/.515/.580 with two home runs, six doubles, and 17 RBI in 102 plate appearances. His walk rate over that span is 15.7 percent, matching his strikeout rate, and his contact rate has climbed to 83.8 percent while his swing rate has ticked down to 44.3 percent. That combination, more contact and fewer swings than his season baseline, describes a hitter who is both selecting better pitches and doing more with them. His BB% for the full season at Double-A sits at 13.0 percent, already the best mark of his career by a meaningful margin over his 7.6 percent from 2025.
The honest framing on Sanabria starts with what he is: a 24-year-old first baseman with a 45 hit tool and 45 power grade whose profile demands the bat clear a high threshold to matter at the next level. A rough Triple-A cameo earlier this year (.200/.268/.307 in 83 plate appearances at El Paso) was a real data point, and the projection still lands at a quad-A or organizational role given the defensive limitations and modest raw power. None of that changes because of a hot August. What September has added, though, is a contact rate and walk rate combination that looks less like a hitter running warm and more like someone who made a real adjustment in his swing decisions. The season-long walk rate is durable signal. Whether it survives a return to Triple-A, where the breaking ball usage and velocity at the top of the zone were a problem, is the question that matters for his offseason trajectory. I'd want to see at least one more Triple-A stint before buying a larger projection, but the floor on this profile has risen.
Schoolcraft Throws Five Scoreless and Gets 13 Whiffs at Lake Elsinore
Kruz Schoolcraft (A, LHP, Rank: 4) delivered his best start in weeks on Thursday, throwing five innings against 18 batters, allowing just two hits, no runs, and one walk while striking out eight. He also generated 13 swinging misses on 78 pitches, with 36 going for strikes. That 46.2 percent strike rate is above his season mark of 41.6 percent, which has been the central drag on his 2026 numbers. The season ERA at Lake Elsinore sits at 5.90 across 79.1 innings, propped up by a 15.5 percent walk rate and frequent deep counts, so a five-inning shutout outing with eight strikeouts and 13 whiffs represents a meaningful departure from his typical line. Over his last 30 days, he is running a 26.0 K% and a 31.6 percent whiff rate, both of which track with a starter who can miss bats when his mechanics stay in sync.
The arsenal on Schoolcraft is legitimately interesting: a 60-grade fastball that operates 96-99 mph with extension and angle, paired with a 60-grade changeup that generates late tumble and arm-side fade. When those two pitches are working together, the whiff rate makes sense. The slider grades at 50 and remains inconsistent, which is part of why the command has been so volatile; without a reliable third pitch, he falls behind in counts and the walk numbers balloon. A 19-year-old lefty with two potential plus offerings and a #3 starter projection is a long-term asset regardless of the ERA, but this week was a reminder of what the upside looks like in practice. The frame and stuff are already there; the command, currently graded at 45, is the developmental variable that will determine whether he grows into a mid-rotation arm or slides toward a bullpen role. This was the version of Schoolcraft worth tracking.
Quick Hits
Tirso Ornelas (AA, LF, Rank: 27) · drove in two runs on three hits, including a double and a home run, across 12 plate appearances this week. That is a small sample, but it fits neatly into a strong last 30 days: over that stretch he is slashing .300/.355/.614 with five home runs and seven doubles in 76 plate appearances, a 14.5 K% over that span. A 50 hit tool and an up-down projection, with the power playing up right now.
Alex McCoy (AA, OF, Rank: 14) · went 8-for-25 with a double, a home run, and two RBI in his 25 plate appearances at San Antonio, walking twice against three strikeouts. His last 30 days at Double-A tell a more complicated story: a 27.5 K% and a 62.0 percent contact rate on a 52.3 percent swing rate. McCoy was promoted from High-A Fort Wayne to Double-A on August 14, and the aggressive swing tendencies that worked at the lower level are getting tested by better spin. The 19-homer combined season is real, and the speed (24 stolen bases) gives the profile another dimension, but the contact rate dip is the number to watch as he settles in.
Braedon Karpathios (AAA, OF, Rank: 21) · was promoted from Double-A San Antonio to Triple-A El Paso on September 8, his first appearance at the level. He slashed .268/.353/.444 with 17 home runs across 510 plate appearances at Double-A this season, earning the bump. His early Triple-A sample is thin at 22 plate appearances, so there is nothing to read into yet beyond the promotion itself being a deserved reward for a full Double-A season.
Rosman Verdugo (AAA, 2B, Rank: 34) · jumped straight from High-A Fort Wayne to Triple-A El Paso on September 11, skipping Double-A entirely. He posted a .225/.340/.389 line with 15 homers and 9 stolen bases in 461 plate appearances at Fort Wayne this year, and his first eight plate appearances at El Paso produced a .375 average. The jump is aggressive and likely reflects September roster flexibility rather than a formal developmental skip.
Luis Gutierrez (AAA, LHP, Rank: 32) · made his Triple-A debut on September 8 after being promoted from Double-A San Antonio, then followed it up with 3.2 innings against 16 batters this week, allowing three hits and one earned run while walking two and striking out four. The combined 2026 ERA across four levels sits at 3.27 with a 30.4 K%, and his last 30 days at Double-A carried a 25.5 K% and just a 9.8 BB%. A 40 command grade and a below-average fastball are real ceilings, but a #5 starter profile backed by a 50 changeup and 50 slider can survive in a rotation if the walks stay manageable.
Jose Verdugo (A, 2B, Rank: 9) · had a slow week, going 2-for-14 with one RBI, two walks, and two strikeouts across 14 plate appearances at Lake Elsinore. The slow week is worth noting because he came in with genuine momentum: over his last 30 days he is hitting .345 with an 84.3 percent contact rate and a 12.7 K%, as clean a contact profile as any 18-year-old in the system. One rough week does not move the needle on a prospect with a 50 hit tool and 37 stolen bases on the season; the approach is still there.