Guardians of the Future Prospect Weekly: Velazquez's Power Binge, Favors Finds His Groove in Akron
By Michael Morgan ·
Four Bombs and a Question About the Ceiling
Ralphy Velazquez (AAA, 1B, Rank: 3) hit four home runs last week, drove in nine, and did it all in 23 plate appearances while walking four times and striking out just three. That is a jaw-dropping line for any prospect, let alone a 21-year-old first baseman who entered the season with a 45 hit tool and questions about whether he could sustain production against upper-level arms. The four-homer week pushed his Triple-A season total to 15 home runs in 278 plate appearances at Columbus, and over the last 30 days he has posted a .671 slugging percentage with 11 home runs and 23 RBI across 96 plate appearances. There is no reasonable way to describe that stretch as anything other than a sustained offensive eruption.
The profile always pointed here in terms of raw power: a 55-grade raw with a projection of 25-to-30 home runs annually, comparable to a Kyle Schwarber-type three-true-outcomes corner bat. His aggressive 54.1 percent swing rate over the last month pairs with a 70.4 percent contact rate, which is the persistent tension in his game. The combined 2026 line across Double-A and Triple-A sits at .286/.376/.528 with 22 home runs in 447 plate appearances, which is genuinely strong production for a player his age, and his 2025 stop at Double-A produced a .330/.405/.589 slash over 28 games to suggest the hit tool can hold at elevated levels when things click. The question is less whether Velazquez will hit home runs in the majors and more whether the contact rate holds well enough against premium velocity. A late-2026 big-league debut was already on the table before this week; after it, internal pressure to accelerate that timeline probably increased in the organization.
Favors Is Pitching Like Someone Who Figured Something Out
Caden Favors (AA, LHP, Rank: 27) has always carried the feel of a pitcher whose stuff outpaces his profile, and the last 30 days are starting to back that up in a meaningful way. He threw seven innings of two-hit, one-run ball last week with 10 strikeouts and just one walk, an outing that merits a second look at a pitcher who entered the year projected as a long reliever or up-down piece. Zoom out to the last month and the picture is even better: 26.2 innings, a 3.04 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, and 30 strikeouts against six walks. His season ERA entering that stretch was 5.03 in over 105 innings at Double-A, so the recent run represents a genuine shift in execution rather than a one-start blip.
What makes Favors worth tracking is that his underlying pitch grades were never the problem. The slider grades at 55 and the fastball sits 92-to-95, giving him a foundation to miss bats when the command holds. His season-long whiff rate of 28.6 percent is legitimate, and the recent stretch shows a 47.9 percent strike rate with the walk rate coming down sharply. He has allowed five home runs over the last month, which is still a concern for a pitcher without a plus changeup to neutralize right-handed hitters, but the package in August looks like a starter who finally ironed out the command issues that inflated his ERA through June and July. At 24, the development runway is shorter than you'd like, but a pitcher with a mid-rotation shape to his arsenal who suddenly looks like he can execute it deserves more attention than his rank suggests.
Quick Hits
- Dean Curley (AA, SS, Rank: 18) · went 5-for-22 with two home runs, six RBI, and four walks last week, striking out seven times in 22 plate appearances. The strikeout total is par for the course with Curley, who has fanned 130 times across 439 plate appearances this season while posting a remarkable 96 walks. His 29.2 percent swing rate is about as selective as it gets in the minor leagues, and the approach has kept his on-base percentage at .434 combined despite a batting average under .260. The power is real: 14 home runs this year between High-A and Double-A, with a .488 slugging percentage over his last 30 days in Akron.
- Welbyn Francisca (A+, SS, Rank: 19) · collected seven hits, three doubles, four walks, and four strikeouts in 22 plate appearances, continuing a stretch of production that has completely rewritten his offensive profile. He is slashing .322/.402/.724 with nine home runs over his last 30 days at Lake County. A player who hit three home runs in 428 plate appearances at Single-A last season now has 14 on the year in just 217 A+ plate appearances. The 45 power grade is probably due for a reconsideration, though I would want to see how he handles a Double-A assignment before moving it significantly higher. His 55 speed grade adds a layer of value that this power surge only amplifies.
- Kahlil Watson (AAA, LF, Rank: 15) · reached base five times on four hits and a homer, three walks, and a hit-by-pitch in 18 plate appearances. His Triple-A line on the season stands at .254/.371/.473 with 15 home runs, and the 60-grade athleticism and speed continue to show up on the bases with 21 stolen bases in Columbus. His .376 on-base percentage over the last 30 days is encouraging because the contact issues have been well-documented, but a 70.1 percent contact rate in that stretch suggests the timing mechanism is in a better place than it was earlier in the year.
- Cooper Ingle (AAA, C, Rank: 7) · went 3-for-25 at the plate last week, but the line reads better than it looks: 10 walks against eight strikeouts across 25 plate appearances. His 55 hit tool and extremely selective approach (37.7 percent swing rate this year) mean he can generate value even in cold stretches at the dish, and his Triple-A OBP on the season remains at .433. The brief MLB cup of coffee this year (.095/.208/.095 in 24 PA) showed the big-league jump is a real test, but a .563 slugging percentage over his last 30 Triple-A days suggests the power has a legitimate pulse heading into September.
- Jaison Chourio (AA, OF, Rank: 6) · drew six walks against zero strikeouts across 19 plate appearances last week, a zero-whiff showing that reflects the 77.7 percent contact rate he has posted all season. The last 30 days have been a grind offensively (.189 average in 106 PA), but his walk rate has stayed intact at 14.2 percent during that cold stretch, which is the profile at work. He has 31 stolen bases in 426 combined plate appearances between High-A and Double-A this year, nearly tripling his 2025 stolen base output from the same two levels.
- Svert Reinoso (RK, SS, Rank: 20) · went 7-for-23 with a homer, a double, two walks, and a hit by pitch in 23 plate appearances. The 17-year-old is hitting .379/.481/.636 over the last 30 days in the Florida Complex League, a run that has pushed his season slash to .302/.441/.510. He has a 55-grade arm and enough patience at the plate to run a .441 on-base percentage against DSL and FCL competition, but the real test will come when he faces pitching that punishes zone-control lapses. Worth watching.
- Rafeliz Lara (RK, SS, Rank: 37) · hit two home runs, a triple, and a double across 19 plate appearances with six RBI and only two strikeouts. The 17-year-old switch-hitter has posted a .511 combined slugging percentage with five home runs in 201 plate appearances this year in the complex leagues, and a 50 hit tool with minimal swing-and-miss is an encouraging foundation for a player who projects to second base long term.
- Braylon Doughty (AA, RHP, Rank: 5) · threw three scoreless innings in a short outing, allowing two hits and two walks while striking out one. The abbreviated appearance kept his ERA from climbing, but the strikeout rate was uncharacteristically low for a pitcher whose combined 2026 line shows 101 punchouts in 85.1 innings. His 3.02 ERA in 14 High-A starts earlier this year earned the Double-A promotion, and the 60-grade curveball remains a weapon that gives him a ceiling beyond the current results. The two-start Double-A sample (7 IP, 3.86 ERA) is too small to read into yet.
- Luke Hill (AA, 3B, Rank: 21) · returned from the injured list on August 14 after missing nearly two months with a placement dating to June 30. In his first two games back at Akron, he went 2-for-5 with a walk across seven plate appearances. His last extended action before the IL stint came at High-A, where he posted a .274/.436/.597 line with 10 home runs in 164 plate appearances. Getting those High-A numbers against Double-A arms will be the real challenge as he builds back toward full activity in the final weeks of the season.
- Austin Peterson (AAA, RHP, Rank: 36) · went five innings, allowing two earned runs on five hits with six strikeouts and two walks. His ERA over the last 30 days at Columbus has dropped to 2.92 across 24.2 innings, a meaningful rebound from a season-long mark of 4.52 through 19 starts. The 70-grade command is the carrying tool, and when it is locked in, Peterson can make a 92-to-95 fastball play well above its grade. The 2025 Double-A campaign (1.47 ERA in 55 innings) established what this profile looks like at its best; sustaining something close to that in Triple-A is the remaining question.