Space City Prospects: Spence Goes Deep Three Times at Sugar Land, Nezuh Deals in Relief
By Drew Mitchell ·
Space City Prospects covers the last 7 days of action for the Astros farm system.
Spence's Power Week at Sugar Land
Lucas Spence (AAA, CF, Rank: 21) went 7-for-21 with three home runs, a double, a triple, and seven RBI across his Sugar Land plate appearances this week, producing more over-the-fence damage in seven days than he had in any full month at Triple-A this season. The power has always been a question mark in his profile: he carries a 45 power grade with a swing built more toward line-drive contact than loft, and his season numbers at Sugar Land had reflected that, showing just four home runs over 47 games before this stretch arrived. The last 30 days at Triple-A tell a different story, with six home runs and 14 RBI over 81 plate appearances, a 17.3 percent walk rate, and a contact rate that has dipped to 69.6 percent as the swing has gotten a little more vertical. The power output over the past month is running well ahead of the grade.
Spence is a 50 hit, 60 speed, 60 arm outfielder with real on-base instincts and the defensive versatility to play any outfield spot, projecting as a strong-side platoon or up-down fourth outfielder. At 23, the profile has always had a clear floor built on plate discipline and athleticism, but weeks like this one raise a genuine question about whether the power can stabilize enough to push the role higher. His swing rate over the last 30 days has dropped to 40.1 percent, right at the selective threshold, which suggests the loft gains are not coming from expanded aggression but from better swing decisions in hitter's counts. The platoon split against left-handers remains a real ceiling constraint, and the MLB line of .162 across 41 plate appearances this season is a reminder of what upper-level arms do when they attack the weak side of the ledger. Still, three home runs in a week at Triple-A, paired with a 17.3 percent walk rate over the past month, makes a productive argument that there is more bat here than the 45 power grade captures right now.
Nezuh Nearly Untouchable in 4.1 Innings at Sugar Land
Jackson Nezuh (AAA, RHP, Rank: 20) got through 4.1 innings this week allowing just one hit and no runs against 14 batters, striking out six without issuing a walk. He threw 24-of-48 pitches for strikes and generated five whiffs in the process. It was the cleanest outing of his Triple-A stint and a meaningful contrast to what the broader numbers have shown since his promotion: a 4.01 ERA over 33.2 innings at Sugar Land with a 13.9 percent walk rate that has been the persistent problem at the upper level. The walk rate ballooned from 9.5 percent at Double-A last year to nearly 14 percent in his Triple-A exposure this season, so going through 14 batters without a free pass is the outcome his profile needs more of to stay in the rotation conversation.
Nezuh is a four-pitch right-hander with a 45-grade fastball sitting 92-94 mph, an average slider, and a changeup and cutter that both grade below average. The ceiling on the profile is a long reliever or swingman, and an outing like this one fits that projection well: when he tunnels the slider off the elevated heater and commands it, the stuff can play up over short stints in ways it does not always sustain through a full rotation turn. His combined 2026 numbers show a 3.99 ERA and 27.9 percent strikeout rate across 99.1 innings at two levels, which is a usable baseline for a depth arm. The walk rate is the variable that affects the floor and ceiling, and this week at least, he held it together.
Quick Hits
- Trey Dombroski (AA, LHP, Rank: 23) · gave Houston two full starts this week, totaling nine innings across 36 batters with six hits, two earned runs, three walks, nine strikeouts, and 13 whiffs on 66-of-143 pitches for strikes. The nine innings and nine punchouts are the volume and efficiency his profile needs, and a 4.50 ERA over the last 30 days is at least a step back toward the 3.61 he posted in 2025. He is a back-end starter candidate who relies on a plus changeup, a two-plane curveball, and deception from his left-handed delivery rather than raw stuff; when the command holds, the package works. The season-long BB% of 11.6 percent remains higher than his 2025 mark of 10.5 percent, and the 15 home runs allowed are an active concern for someone without a power fastball to recover from mistakes.
- Jason Schiavone (AAA, C, Rank: 17) · earned his first Triple-A assignment on September 8, moving up from Corpus Christi after one of the more productive offensive seasons in the system. He slashed .289/.452/.766 with 17 home runs in 168 plate appearances at High-A and added 14 home runs over 339 plate appearances at Double-A, finishing with 31 home runs combined. The first 14 plate appearances at Sugar Land have been rough, but that is a four-game window against the best pitching he has faced. A 40 hit tool and elevated strikeout rate will be tested hard at Triple-A; the power is real enough to keep watching.
- Anthony Huezo (AA, OF, Rank: 24) · also received his first Double-A assignment on September 8, jumping from Asheville after posting eight home runs in 169 High-A plate appearances to go along with 14 home runs and 30 stolen bases at Low-A earlier this season. The combined 2026 line of 22 home runs and 46 steals across three levels at age 20 is a legitimate counting-stat achievement. The first 14 plate appearances at Corpus Christi have produced one stolen base and little else, which is expected against this caliber of pitching, but his speed (55 grade) and athleticism give him tools to draw on as he adjusts.
- Bryce Mayer (AAA, RHP, Rank: 9) · had a bumpy week at Sugar Land, going 4.2 innings against 24 batters with six hits, three earned runs, five walks, and six strikeouts while generating 12 whiffs on 43-of-93 pitches for strikes. The five walks in one start are the version of Mayer that the Triple-A ERA of 4.66 has been reflecting, a contrast to the 2.61 ERA he built over 69 innings at Double-A earlier this season. He carries a 55-grade four-seamer sitting 95-97 mph with an above-average curveball, and the stuff is genuine; the command and changeup development are where the gap between Double-A and Triple-A is showing up. His last 30 days at Sugar Land show a 3.12 ERA over 26 innings with a 27.1 percent strikeout rate, so the rough week does not erase a reasonable recent trend.
- Kevin Alvarez (A, OF, Rank: 3) · went 2-for-15 with two walks and four strikeouts across 15 plate appearances at Fayetteville this week, a stretch for one of the system's highest-ceilinged bats. His last 30 days show a .206 batting average and a 26.6 percent strikeout rate over 79 plate appearances, a step back from the full-season line of .261 with an 18.5 percent strikeout rate. He is 18 years old at Low-A with a 55 hit and 55 power grade in a frame that still has significant projection, so a slow September week is not cause for concern. The question going forward is just how quickly he can unlock more consistent loft without surrendering the bat-to-ball quality that makes his profile interesting at this stage.