Space City Prospects: Hertzler Dominates at Double-A, Frey's Power Surge Rolls On
By Drew Mitchell ·
Hertzler's Latest at Corpus Christi
Cole Hertzler (AA, RHP, Rank: 28) threw four innings of one-hit, shutout ball last week, striking out seven without issuing a walk. That line stands out from any pitcher at Double-A, but it carries additional weight given the context around it. Hertzler arrived at Corpus Christi in late July after posting a 2.72 ERA across ten starts at Asheville, and the jump to Double-A has not derailed him. His combined season ERA sits at 2.63 across 72 innings and two levels, with 87 strikeouts against 40 walks. The walk rate is worth watching; the 40 free passes across the year reflect the below-average command that has been part of his profile. But over his last four appearances at Double-A, he has logged 15 strikeouts in 11.1 innings with a 1.15 WHIP, and last week was his sharpest outing of that stretch by a significant margin.
The arsenal here is four pitches with the changeup as the carrying secondary. The fastball sits 93-97 mph and plays up thanks to deception in his delivery, and when he pairs it with a plus changeup, he does not need to be perfect with his breaking balls to get through lineups. The slider and curveball are both fringe-average, so the profile leans heavily on the fastball-changeup tandem, which is why the seven-strikeout, zero-walk outing is encouraging: it suggests he commanded both offerings effectively. A No. 4 starter projection feels appropriate, and if he keeps this up at Corpus Christi, a Triple-A taste before the end of the year is within reach. Bryce Mayer just made that jump, and Hertzler is putting himself in that conversation.
Frey Is Not Slowing Down
Ethan Frey (A+, OF, Rank: 6) went 8-for-23 with four doubles, a home run, and 6 RBI last week, the latest loud week in what has become a genuinely productive High-A season. He is slashing .343/.405/.600 over his last 19 games at Asheville with four home runs and 19 RBI in that stretch, a run that has lifted his combined season line to .288/.377/.468 with 10 home runs and 56 RBI across 70 games. The 22-year-old came into pro ball with questions after a shoulder injury required labrum surgery, and the limited defensive reps in the outfield remain a real part of the evaluation. But whatever concerns existed about his bat carrying the profile have been answered through the first two-thirds of the season.
Frey is a 55 power and 55 speed profile in a corner outfield projection, and the power numbers are tracking right in the middle of that band with room to push higher if the approach holds. The strikeout rate is the thing to monitor: he has punched out 85 times in 291 plate appearances at Asheville, a rate that will eventually get probed harder as he moves up. Last week's 5 strikeouts in 23 trips kept pace with that trend, though the production around them was more than enough. There is a 15-to-20 home run ceiling here with a legitimate shot at 20-plus if he keeps making enough contact to let the power play. A Double-A assignment in 2027 seems like the floor, and if the strikeout numbers improve any, the timeline could compress. I would take the over on a utility projection for a bat this consistent at this level.
Quick Hits
Alejandro Nuñez (AA, SS, Rank: 20) · collected 7 hits and drove in 2 runs across 20 plate appearances in his second week at Corpus Christi, drawing 2 walks against 4 strikeouts. He is hitting .364/.417/.409 through 24 plate appearances at Double-A after spending most of the year at Asheville, where a .246/.322/.392 line with 11 home runs told a productive if uneven story. The strikeout rate has been much more manageable at Double-A in the small sample, though the power-light profile as a 50 hit, 40 power utility projection means the bat has to do this: make contact, work counts, and stay on base. It is seven games, so the ceiling on conclusions is low, but the early returns are encouraging.
Albert Fermín (RK, SS, Rank: 22) · reached base in seven of his 13 plate appearances last week, going 4-for-9 with a double, a triple, and 2 RBI while drawing 4 walks. The 17-year-old switch-hitter is slashing .349/.511/.556 with 5 home runs and 20 stolen bases on the season across 176 plate appearances in the DSL. His 30-day line of .311/.492/.556 reflects a player with genuine strike-zone feel and physicality that stands out at this level. The evaluation has to be tempered by age and competition, but a 50 hit and 50 power profile at 17 gives him one of the better developmental floors in the lower levels of the system.
Anthony Millan (RK, OF, Rank: 38) · drew 4 walks against 6 strikeouts in 17 plate appearances last week, going 4-for-13 with no extra-base hits. The production was light, but the plate discipline story continues to be the headline: he is posting a .500 OBP over his last 15 games, drawing walks at a remarkable clip for an 18-year-old. The season OBP sits at .421 in 152 plate appearances with 19 stolen bases, which plays well against the 60 speed and 60 field grades. Power is capped by the profile, but a tools-first center fielder who controls the zone this well at this age has a real everyday ceiling.
Bryce Mayer (AAA, RHP, Rank: 7) was promoted to Sugar Land on August 4, making his first Triple-A appearance after posting a 2.61 ERA with 100 strikeouts in 69 innings at Corpus Christi. The debut was rough: 3 innings, 2 earned runs on 2 walks and 3 strikeouts, a 18.00 ERA in the one-outing sample. One appearance is noise, but the jump to Triple-A competition on short rest is a real test. He has earned the promotion; now comes the adjustment.
Randy Arias (RK, SS, Rank: 34) · drew 6 walks against just 1 strikeout in 19 plate appearances last week, going 2-for-13 with a double and 2 RBI. The season walk rate of 24 percent in 169 plate appearances is the standout number for a 17-year-old shortstop who grades as a 55 fielder. The bat is light, a 45 hit and 35 power profile, and the offensive numbers reflect that, but zone awareness at this age and level is not nothing. He is a long developmental runway play.
James Hicks (AA, RHP, Rank: 26) · allowed 2 earned runs on 4 hits and a walk while striking out 5 across 4 innings last week. The season ERA stands at 4.93 through 95 innings at Corpus Christi, but his last 30 days have looked meaningfully better: 20 innings, 7 earned runs, 17 strikeouts, and a 3.15 ERA. The sinker-slider combination plays best when he stays ahead in counts, and that pattern has held up more consistently over the past month. A fringe starter projection with an up-and-down ceiling fits, and staying healthy after a forearm injury earlier in his career remains part of the equation.
Logan Hughes (A, OF, Rank: 8) · was promoted from the FCL to Fayetteville on August 7 in his first assignment to full-season ball. He has 4 plate appearances at the A-ball level so far. Hughes is one of the higher-ranked prospects in the system, and how he handles Low-A pitching over the final weeks of the season will be worth monitoring closely.
Cole Hertzler also saw two of his rotation-mates contribute last week at Corpus Christi. Ramsey David (AA, RHP, Rank: 41) threw 4 innings, allowing 1 earned run on 3 hits and 2 walks with 4 strikeouts. The season ERA at Double-A remains a troubling 7.85 across 39 innings in relief, and the 36 walks in that same span point to command issues that have persisted all year. The 96-to-99 mph four-seamer gives him a legitimate weapon, but right now it is not enough to offset the control problems at this level.