Wrigleyville Prospect Weekly: Kepley Arrives at Knoxville, Conrad Earns His Promotion
By Reed Kubiak ·
Kepley's Double-A Audition Starts With a Statement
Kane Kepley (AA, OF, Rank: 9) did not ease into Double-A. In three games at Knoxville, he went 3-for-9 with a homer, a double, four RBI, five walks, and two stolen bases, striking out once. That line is almost a parody of his entire profile: the damage was real, the free passes were plentiful, and the strikeout was almost an afterthought. His season numbers at High-A South Bend already told you something was brewing: a .254/.435/.414 slash across 93 games with 96 walks against 66 strikeouts and 50 stolen bases. Over the last 30 days at A+, he hit .274 with a .470 on-base percentage, four homers, four doubles, two triples, and 18 RBI in 20 games, drawing 24 walks to 14 strikeouts. That stretch drove his promotion, and nothing in the early Knoxville sample suggests the step up is going to slow him down.
The profile is a 55 hit tool, 60 speed, 60 glove center fielder whose power grades out at 35, and the honest assessment is that he is going to have to carry this thing on approach and athleticism rather than home run output. He has nine combined homers on the season, which is not nothing for a player with his swing plane, but it is not going to be the engine. What is working is the zone control: a 34.8 percent swing rate that is among the most selective in the system, paired with an 84.5 percent contact rate, which is how you post a .436 on-base percentage in the minors without lighting up the homer column. The scouting report describes his ceiling as an everyday center fielder and his floor as a high-end fourth outfielder; through mid-August, the everyday outcome is looking like the more likely one. Carolina League Pitcher of the Month for July, Jostin Florentino, had already been working the same circuit Kepley dominated, and now Kepley gets to test himself against the better spin and velocity that Double-A pitchers bring. The walk rate should hold. The question is whether the power reading stays in the 35-grade range when pitchers with sharper secondaries start attacking him more in the zone.
Conrad Burns Down Myrtle Beach on His Way Out the Door
Ethan Conrad (A+, OF, Rank: 3) closed out his Myrtle Beach tenure the right way. In his last two games as a Pelican, he went 6-for-10 with two homers, two doubles, seven RBI, and zero strikeouts before getting the call to South Bend on August 18. The timing matters: his Myrtle Beach season line sat at .245/.325/.436 through 29 games, a number that had raised reasonable questions about whether his chase tendencies were being exposed against full-season arms. Then the last 30 days happened. Over that stretch he hit .279 with a .361 on-base percentage, three homers, five doubles, two triples, and 19 RBI across 23 games while making contact at an 85 percent clip despite a 50.9 percent swing rate. He was not suddenly being patient; he was being aggressive and getting to pitches he could drive.
Conrad is a 55 hit, 55 power left fielder with plus athleticism for the position, and the concern coming in was always the chase tendency and whether professional sequencing would find the holes in his swing that were easier to hide in the ACC. The Single-A sample was modest long enough to keep those concerns alive. But the quality of contact over the final month was hard to dismiss: two of his five combined homers on the season came in those last two Myrtle Beach games, and his .465 combined slugging speaks to real gap-to-gap power rather than fluky production. He is 22 and now at High-A, which is where the real evaluation begins. South Bend will throw him better spin and sharper velocity separation than anything he saw in the Carolina League, and how he handles that will go a long way toward answering whether this surge is a development leap or a hot finish at a level he had outgrown. I lean toward the former. The bat speed is real, the contact rate held even as he swung more, and a first-round talent finding his footing in A-ball at 22 and then exploding is not a surprising arc.
Quick Hits
Brody McCullough (AA, RHP, Rank: 37) · went five innings against Double-A competition, allowing one run on three hits with eight strikeouts and no walks. He has now posted a 2.75 ERA over his last four starts at Knoxville covering 19.2 innings with 18 strikeouts, and the WHIP over that stretch sits at 0.71. For a 26-year-old with a history of arm trouble who was not on many radars entering the season, the Double-A ERA of 2.66 across five starts is worth paying attention to. A 93-to-95 mph fastball with a curveball that generates ground balls and a changeup he can throw to either side of the plate is a real pitching kit; if the forearm holds, the up-down arm ceiling may be underselling him.
Tyler Schlaffer (AA, RHP, Rank: 32) · threw four clean innings, two hits, no runs, one walk, and four strikeouts. That outing continues a stretch that has been excellent: a 1.10 ERA over his last seven appearances at Knoxville covering 16.1 innings, with 16 strikeouts and zero home runs allowed. For context, the season ERA sat at 4.74 entering that run, so this is a meaningful correction. The changeup is the carrying pitch, and when the command is there to set it up with his fastball, he can work through lineups. The walk rate (40 free passes in 68.1 innings on the season) remains the ceiling suppressor, but the recent run makes a case that something has clicked.
Jostin Florentino (A+, RHP, Rank: 31) · struck out seven over five innings, allowing just one hit and one earned run with one walk. He was named Carolina League Pitcher of the Month for July, and the last 30 days back that up: a 3.43 ERA across five starts covering 21 innings with 25 strikeouts. The season ERA at South Bend sits at 4.39 through 15 starts, which is a bit bloated by some rough outings early, but the whiff rate (33 percent) is the most encouraging number in his line. A 93-to-95 fastball with a slider that flashes average is a viable two-pitch foundation; command at 45 is the grade holding him in the reliever/quad-A bucket for now.
Kade Snell (A+, OF, Rank: 25) · drove in five on seven hits, including four doubles and a homer, across 25 plate appearances. He has six homers on the season through 287 plate appearances, but four of those have come over the last 30 days as he has slashed .264/.333/.560 during that stretch with seven doubles and a triple. Last year at South Bend he hit .167 with no home runs in 112 plate appearances; the power he is showing now is a genuine departure from that profile. A 55 hit tool with what looked like a 45 power grade on the scouting sheet may need another look. I would take the over on that power number right now.
Juan Cabada (A, SS, Rank: 8) · went 7-for-24 with a homer and seven RBI in his week at Myrtle Beach, hitting his way to a .333/.348/.524 line at A-ball through five games. He is 18 years old and making contact at an 81.4 percent clip with a .297/.376/.459 combined slash across 85 plate appearances at two levels this season. For a player whose projection centers on a contact-first approach with a chance to grow into modest power, the early returns are on track, though the real test comes when pitchers with better breaking balls start hunting the holes in his swing.
Angel Cepeda (A+, SS, Rank: 20) · put up a week with two homers across 29 plate appearances, also adding five walks against 11 strikeouts. The strikeout rate (63.3 percent contact rate on the season) remains the issue, and the 33 punchouts over his last 30 days at South Bend confirm the K-or-walk shape that has defined his season. He has drawn 38 walks in 257 combined plate appearances, which shows real zone awareness, but the swing-and-miss against High-A velocity has not softened. He is 20 with athleticism, a 55 arm, and enough defensive chops to stick at shortstop; the bat just needs time to catch the tools.
Jaims Martinez (RK, SS, Rank: 36) · reached base in nearly half his plate appearances over the last 30 days, posting a .485 on-base percentage across 66 trips to the plate with 17 walks, four doubles, three triples, a homer, and 14 RBI. He is 17 and at the complex level, so everything is projection, but a contact rate that dips to 58.8 percent while the walk totals pile up is an interesting combination; he is getting on base without always squaring things up cleanly. The profile projects as an org arm for now, with speed and early feel for the zone the tools most worth watching.
Ethan Flanagan (AA, LHP, Rank: 21) · earned his first promotion to Knoxville on August 18 after posting a 3.56 ERA through 65.2 innings and 17 starts at South Bend. The step to Double-A comes with a 74-strikeout, 20-walk profile at High-A, which is a solid foundation for a lefty starter making the jump. No debut numbers yet at Knoxville, but the South Bend line earned the call.
James Triantos (AAA, 2B, Rank: 14) · was optioned back to Iowa on August 17 after a stint with the big club. He gets another look at Triple-A to keep his bat sharp; the path back to Chicago will depend on how the Cubs roster shakes out over the final weeks.