World Series Preview: What It Takes for the Rays to Win the World Series
By Grace Turner ·
Major League Baseball will crown a first-time champion this fall. The Rays and Brewers are two of the five current franchises that have never won the World Series, and the matchup pairs the teams with the best regular-season records in their leagues: Milwaukee with a franchise-record 103 wins and Tampa Bay with 98. It is the first World Series between two franchises without a title since the Phillies and Royals met in 1980. Both clubs also ranked in the bottom half of MLB in payroll this season. Game 1 is Friday at 7 p.m. CT at American Family Field.
Tampa Bay swept the Yankees in the American League Division Series, then won the last three games of the ALCS after trailing Cleveland two games to one. The Rays won Game 4 7-3, Game 5 3-1 and Game 6 7-3, the clincher decided by Junior Caminero's two-run homer off the left-field foul pole in the seventh inning and a two-run homer by Yandy Díaz in the eighth. Here is what the same team will need against a Brewers club that MLB.com's World Series preview describes as one "that can hit, plays elite defense, and boasts baseball's top starter in Jacob Misiorowski and a shutdown bullpen."
Make Misiorowski Throw Pitches
Misiorowski led the majors this season in ERA, strikeouts, WHIP and opponents' batting average. The two National League teams that faced him in October did not hit him hard, but they made him work. MLB.com reports that the Padres fouled off 30 pitches in the first four innings of NLDS Game 1 and had him out in the fifth at 88 pitches. In NLCS Game 1, the Dodgers saw 94 pitches in 4 1/3 innings, and 21 of their 42 swings went foul.
That is the template for Tampa Bay. MLB.com expects the Rays to lean on left-handed hitters at the top of the order, with Díaz, Jonathan Aranda, Caminero and Liam Hicks in the first four spots. If they can push Misiorowski toward 90 pitches by the fifth inning, the Rays reach Milwaukee's bullpen early in Game 1 and possibly in a later start. The counterpoint is rest: Misiorowski will have gone 11 days between appearances by Friday.
Keep Running
The Rays stole eight bases in eight attempts against Cleveland, and they did it against Patrick Bailey, one of the quickest-throwing catchers in the game. In Game 6, Chandler Simpson and Víctor Mesa Jr. each stole second in the second inning and then scored on Richie Palacios's two-out double. That running game is covered in more detail in our look at the Rays' 8-for-8 ALCS on the bases.
Against Milwaukee, a stolen base may be worth even more. Milwaukee's elite defense will turn some line drives and ground balls into outs, so a runner who reaches second without needing a hit takes away one of the Brewers' best tools. Simpson led the American League with 46 steals, and Taylor Walls, Cedric Mullins, Palacios and Jonny DeLuca each stole at least 17, so the Rays can run from several spots in the order.
The running game also has to work in reverse. Milwaukee stole 162 bases this season, led by Jackson Chourio with 23 and Brice Turang with 19, and Tampa Bay allowed 131 steals. Holding runners will fall mostly on the Rays' pitchers, since their quickness to the plate decides how much of a jump a runner gets.
Get Hits With Runners in Scoring Position
In Game 6, the Rays drew six walks, were hit by two pitches and stole two bases, then hit two home runs late. They went 2-for-9 with runners in scoring position and left eight on base.
Milwaukee's bullpen is unlikely to hand out that many free passes, so the middle of the order will need to finish more of the innings it starts. Aranda went 3-for-4 with two RBIs in Game 4 after an 0-for-10 start to the series. Díaz homered in Games 4 and 6. Caminero had two hits, a walk and the foul-pole homer in the clincher. Those three, along with Hicks, are the hitters most likely to see Brewers relievers with men on base.
Díaz had a .359 on-base percentage this season and Aranda had a .358, which gives Caminero chances to hit with runners aboard. He drew 79 walks, 14 of them intentional, and the Rays will need him to keep taking those when Milwaukee pitches around him.
Start Well, Then Bridge to Bryan Baker
Drew Rasmussen is the likely Game 1 starter, and he allowed one run over seven innings in the Game 5 win in Cleveland. Freddy Peralta, the ALCS MVP, would line up for Game 2 on normal rest, with Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax available after that. Rasmussen and Peralta are both former Brewers.
The bullpen is where the Rays were pushed hardest in the ALCS. Bryan Baker pitched the ninth in Games 4, 5 and 6, which CBS Sports noted he had done only once during the regular season. In Game 6, Tyler Wells allowed two runners in the eighth, Ian Seymour walked two and hit a batter without recording an out, and both of Wells's runners scored before right-hander Kevin Kelly struck out Brayan Rocchio on three changeups to end the threat. Seymour also allowed two runs in Game 4. The three days off before Game 1 give Baker and the rest of the group time to recover. Baker saved 41 games with a 1.44 ERA in the regular season, but his four-seam fastball averaged 96.3 mph then, 94.8 mph in the ALDS and 93.4 mph in the ALCS, a drop measured over only 19 ALCS fastballs. Kevin Cash will want his starters to cover at least five innings so that Baker, Kelly and left-handed setup man Cam Booser can be saved for the late innings.
The other side of that equation is Milwaukee's bullpen, which allowed six earned runs in 40 2/3 postseason innings. Aaron Ashby threw 12 1/3 of those innings without allowing a run, so the Rays will want to score before the late innings.
Keep Catching the Ball
Tampa Bay played errorless baseball in all three of its ALCS wins. Walls, an American League Gold Glove finalist at shortstop, turned a double play in Game 6 and handled several ground balls in Game 5. Simpson, a Gold Glove finalist in left field, has improved defensively this season. A Milwaukee lineup that can hit will test that defense, and the Rays have not given away extra outs this October.
The Path
To win the World Series, the Rays will need long at-bats against Misiorowski, continued success on the bases against catcher William Contreras, more hits with runners in scoring position than they had in Game 6, five or more innings from Rasmussen and Peralta, and enough rest for Baker and the late-inning relievers to pitch on consecutive days again.